Beating the House -- Super Bowl Sunday

I don't know about you guys but two weeks is much too long to wait for the big game...in my last column (see below), I said that Championship Sunday is usually more enjoyable than the Super Bowl because you often get two close games that are fun to watch...naturally, I went against that logic and went with the favorites and we all know how that turned out...so here we go, one game left to play...if I wagered on the Pro Bowl, I would attend Gamblers Anonymous immediately...also, congratulations to Larry Yocum on his move to rototimes...he will be missed.

New York Giants (+12) at New England -- The quest for perfection ends today, one way or another...does anyone think that the Pats will be denied after coming this far? The Giants played them tough in Week 17 only to see an 11-point lead vanish before their eyes...the Pats will win but have only covered one of their last eight games and all three of the titles have been won by a FG...however, this team is superior to past winners and far better than the GMen...I'm going to bite the bullet and say the Pats end their perfect season the way they opened it...by overwhelming their opponent in every phase of the game...Patriots 38 New York Giants 17.

Moving

Good morning there sports fans. I wanted to apologize to those of you that have been checking in to get the rest of my baseball rankings and to let you know that I will no longer be able to post them here. I have been incredibly busy and a great opportunity has come up that will no longer allow me to write for Fantola. I have been offered a position at Rototimes.com and I will be moving my work over there. As part of the agreement with Rototimes, I can no longer write for other web-sites or blogs. Look for my work next weekend as I will be writing a feature in the NBA section on Hot/Cold players. For those of you that wanted to see the rest of my rankings, you can check them out in the rotoworld discussion forums as I posted them there as discussion threads. Look for the closers thread and there will be links provided to the other positions within the closers thread. I wanted to say thank you to the guys at Fantola that allowed me to write here and to encourage them to keep up the good work. I will be checking in and reading their stuff regularly.

See you later sports fans and enjoy that Superbowl next weekend. I know I will.

Sincerely

Larry Yocum

Beating the House--Championship Sunday

In a lot of cases, Championship Sunday is better than the Super Bowl...not only do you get two games, they are usually hard-fought contests that come down to the wire...Pats/Indy last year is a prime example...alas, I don't see it happening today in either game...hopefully I get these two right to make up for my underwhelming playoff record so far...

San Diego (+13.5) at New England-- Yes, the Chargers shocked the world last week...for their heroic efforts, they got to fly back home and then back across the country to face the best team on the planet on their chilly home turf...punk ass Rivers is doubtful, LT and Gates are hobbled and this gutsy team is simply overmatched in every aspect...but this is why the play the game...everyone outside of New England is rooting for the Pats to lose and not only does Belichick and Company know it, they thrive on it...I don't see how this game is any different than Week 2 when Pats spanked them to the tune of 38-14...only an act of God could derail Tom Brady...Pats have not covered their gargantuan spreads in 6 out of last 7 but that changes today in definitive fashion...pick: Patriots.

New York Giants (+7) at Green Bay-- The GMen are true road warriors and now look for their third straight playoff win away from home...we live in a bizarro universe that has Eli winning on the road while Peyton loses at home...Eli is the wild card here and is apt to make mistakes at Lambeau with the swirling winds, bitter cold, and crazy Cheesehead fans...NY pass rush might not be as effective against solid Packer O-line...bottom line is this: don't bet against Brett Favre in a big game at home...I went against that logic last week and that 14-0 Seahawk lead was only a tease...this could be respectable for a bit but I think Pack breaks free and heads to Arizona for a showdown with Pats...pick: Packers.

Last Week: 1-3 To Date: 150-107-7

Play Action - Conference Championships

It's down to the Final Four.
After this Sunday, it's just 2 weeks of relentless hype until the Super Bowl.
Everybody's already penciled in the Packers vs. Patriots for the Super Bowl, but we shall see.
It's time to take a look at the Postseason Fantasy Football Rankings for the remaining players.

Quarterback

1. Tom Brady vs. Chargers - The Chargers pick the ball off at a tremendous level, but still, Tommy Ballgame is the best available option.

2. Brett Favre vs. Giants - The Giant pass defense is still an enigma. They're playing some inspired ball, but Favre will be slinging it as usual.

3. Eli Manning @ Packers - All of a sudden, Peyton's retarded brother is a world beater, and the last Manning standing. Can he keep it up? He's facing an awfully tough test.

4. Philip Rivers/Billy Volek @ Patriots - Rumor is that Rivers has ACL damage, which gives him 2 bad knees. Not exactly what you're looking for. Volek has shown he's capable, but he's facing a tough test after doing nothing all season long, until last week.

Running Backs
1. Ryan Grant vs. Giants - The undisputed king of the big play.

2. LaDainian Tomlinson @ Patriots - It's incredibly rare that LT takes a back seat to anyone, but he's banged up, so he drops slightly. Still, you can never go wrong with LT...if he makes it through the game.

3. Laurence Maroney vs. Chargers - All of a sudden, he's shown up in games...who knew?

4. Brandon Jacobs @ Packers - Facing a tough matchup, and the Giants will have to throw.

Wide Receivers
1. Randy Moss vs. Chargers - Mr. "Consensual Horseplay" will be looking to prove something.

2. Greg Jennings vs. Giants - Favre's go-to big play guy.

3. Wes Welker vs. Chargers - The possession man continues to shine.

4. Plaxico Burress @ Packers - Tough test.

5. Chris Chambers @ Patriots - The Chargers can't ride a knicked LT all the time...Gates is also still damaged goods.

6. Donald Driver vs. Giants

7. Vincent Jackson @ Patriots

8. Amani Toomer @ Packers

Tight Ends
1. Antonio Gates @ Patriots

2. Ben Watson vs. Chargers

3. Donald Lee vs. Giants

4. Kevin Boss @ Packers

Defense/Special Teams
1. Packers

2. Patriots

3. Giants

4. Chargers

Kickers
1. Mason Crosby vs. Giants

2. Steven Gostkowski vs. Chargers

3. Nate Kaeding @ Patriots

4. Lawrence Tynes @ Packers

Early Catcher Rankings 2008

A little bit of strategy on drafting and ranking catchers. For one, it is a very difficult position to rank and draft because it is very thin. You will confront a lot of players with very similar numbers after the top guys. You will see more youth on this list than any other of my other positional lists. The reason for that is that I would rather gamble on a young catcher than a guy that I know won't produce much. Even if the gamble doesn't pay off, then you can probably go to the waiver wirer and pick up the guy or a comparable player that you would have drafted there anyway. This type of strategy would have worked heavily with Russell Martin, but backfired if you drank the kool-aid on Chris Iannetta last year.

Actually drafting the catchers also presents a problem. I consider the first 5 to be guys that you will need to reach for. What this means is that you will need to draft guys like V-mart or Russell Martin when other guys that are statistically superior are being drafted. So, if you draft Martin you will get a 20-20 catcher, but you may be giving up a 40 HR guy or a 30-30 outfielder. This is a difficult leap to take, but I have found that catcher is such a thin position, that it is often worth it. If you miss out on the top 5 guys, then you are just better off waiting for a while. The next tier will be spread out in the middle of the draft. In competitive leagues, the final catcher run will come late in the draft as the half the league that waited will look to fill out the position. If you find yourself in this position, jump in as you see fit, but there isn't much separating the bottom tier.

I omitted guys that are free agents or are in obvious time shares that I like because I don't see them getting enough playing time to make them worth a draft pick in a standard league at this point, but keep an eye on them in camp to see if they win a full-time spot or if there is a trade or an injury. This list includes guys like Josh Bard, Micheal Barrett, Mike Napoli, Jeff Mathis, Johnny Estrada etc. You can always counter this by drafting both if you are an active manager and in leagues with daily roster settings and plugging in that days starter if you can.

Positional Rankings for Catchers

1. Russell Martin (Age on opening day 25)
2007 Stats: .293 87 Runs 19 HR, 87 RBI 21 SB
Martin is the yin and the yang of catchers and will balance your lineup right away. He is the only one that will get you HR's and SB with a decent average and that warrants the number 1 spot in my opinion.

2. Victor Martinez (29)
2007 Stats: .301 avg. 78 Runs 25 HR 114 RBI 0 SB
V-mart is my second choice if I can't get Martin. I think these are the only 2 that I really go way early on as I think they will be sure things. V-mart gives you a first baseman's numbers behind the plate and catcher has gotten very thin. I think he is worth the 4th to 5th round investment. Caution: others may go earlier on him and Martin.

3. Jorge Posada (36)
2007 Stats: .338 avg. 91 Runs, 20 HR, 90 RBI, 2 SB
This is higher than I would probably like to take Posada, but he has been a very consistent guy for a long time now and was probably the statistical # 1 catcher last year with that .338 avg. and peripherals. I don't expect him to hit that high again, but even if he gives you 2006 again and hits with at his career .277 avg, the rest of his numbers make him a high quality backstop at 80-20-80.

4. Brian McCann (24)
2007 Stats: .270 avg. 51 Runs 18 HR 92 RBI 0 SB
Ok, another guy looking for consistency. Is he a .270 disappointment or the .333 juggernaut of 2006. He should get plenty of RBI opportunities in that Atlanta lineup and has the swing of a first basemen. I expect a bounce back. [/font]

5. Joe Mauer (24)
2007 Stats: .293 avg. 62 Runs 7 HR 60 RBI 7 SB
The 2006 AL Batting Champ was very disappointing in 2007 and battled injuries all year long. He can flat rake though and you have to be willing to get a .330 catcher any time you can. The power has not arrived as advertised yet, but he is still young. Is it on the way?

6. Kenji Johjima (31)
2007 Stats: .287 avg. 52 Runs 14 HR 61 RBI 0 SB
Johjima has put in two consistent years in a row now. Look for him in the middle rounds if you want a consistent catcher that won't hurt you and you are comfortable with your other picks.

7. Bengie Molina (33)
2007 Stats: .276 avg 38 Runs 19 HR 81 RBI 0 SB
Molina is very much like Johjima. Consistent. A number of people are scared by the Giants poor lineup, but for Molina, it will represent an opportunity. He will bat 5th and 6th a lot as opposed to the 8th spot that most guys will occupy. That will keep his RBI's at a healthy level.

8. Jarrod Saltalamacchia (22)
2007 Stats: .266 avg. 39 Runs 11 HR 33 RBI
Will this kid start off in the minors like Texas is saying, or will he have a full-time job in April? I would track this and draft accordingly. Texas is a hitters park and I think the smart thing would be to let the kid get his lumps in the majors. I don't think he has anything left to prove in the minors, but is still very young.

9. Geovany Soto (25)
2007 Stats: Minor Leagues: .353 avg. 75 runs 26 HR's 109 RBI 0 SB in 385 AB's
Major Leagues: .389 avg. 12 Runs 3 HR 8 RBI 0 SB in 54 AB's
Are those numbers real? He only hit 25 HR's in 6 years combined in the minors and was a career .263 hitter going into last season and then he exploded. I don't know what to make of it. He kept raking even after the call-up so this next season will be very telling. Is this guy a legit.300 hitter or closer to the guy that hit .263 for 6 years?

10. Jason Varitek (35)
2007 Stats: .255 avg. 57 Runs 17 HR 68 RBI 1 SB
I'm going to throw a couple of veterans at you now. What you see is what you get with these guys. I wouldn't expect more than what Varitek did in 2007 at 35 years of age.

11. Ivan Rodriguez (36)
2007 Stats: .281 50 Runs 11 HR 63 RBI 2 SB
Another veteran that should provide similar numbers in 2007 and won't hurt you. That Tigers line-up should be very potent, so I expect a slight increase in Runs and RBI.

12. J.R. Towles (24)
2007 Stats: Minor leagues .287 avg. 66 Runs 11 HR 62 RBI 14 SB in 349 AB's
Major Leagues .375 avg. 9 Runs 1 HR 12 RBI in 40 AB's
This guy is my guilty sleeper. He is a career .300 hitter in the minors and has double digit steals every season, which means that he is only 1 of 2 catchers that will run consistently. If you add up his AB's to get 500 in any given time frame, you get 20-20 potential. His problem has been health and getting those 500 AB's. Even if he gives me 15-15 with a .275 avg., I will be very happy as he will be a late round pick and off a lot of people's radar. Getting 15 SB from a catcher is gold. Ausmus will be Oswalt's personal catcher next year clearing the way for Towles. If you get him, you may want to handcuff a vet late like I did with Molina in my dynasty league, just in case.

13. Ramon Hernandez (31)
2007 Stats: .258 avg. 40 Runs 9 HR 62 RBI
Ramon, what happened buddy? This guy is better than this, but can he stay healthy? If he can stay healthy, he should return to his career norm of .275 with 20+ HR's.

14. AJ Pierzynski (31)
2007 Stats: .263 avg. 54 Runs 14 HR 50 RBI 1 SB
While his avg. is a roller coaster, the rest of his numbers are not. He is a career .287 hitter, but is usually well above that or well below it. What will we get in 2008? I expect 60-15-60 regardless.

15. Chris Snyder (27)
2007 Stats: .252 avg. 37 Runs 13 HR 47 RBI 0 SB
A younger choice than the vets above him, he is probably capable of similar numbers, but needs to prove it. At this point, you may need to just get lucky as you are confronted with an assortment of guys that will hit .260-60-15-60.

Barely missed the cut: Kurt Suzuki, Carlos Ruiz, Ronny Paulino, Yorvit Torrealba,

Early Fantasy Baseball Player Rankings 2008- First Base

Early First Base Rankings 2008
Written By Larry Yocum

Hi, my name is Larry Yocum and I am new to Fantola. I will be posting on here regularly and will primarily work on basketball and baseball articles although I love discussing all sports. I specialize in the realm of fantasy sports and that will be my focus. I am going to start with positional rankings in baseball as I am in the middle of early drafts for the upcoming season and really nobody else has theirs out yet, so this should be helpful for the rabid baseball fanatic. Rather than start with catchers, as they are less glamorous, I would like to start with a power position at first base. Look for Catchers on Thursday.

These rankings are based on a standard 1-year mixed 12-team rotisserie league. Because it is a rotisserie league ranking system, you may find stolen bases and average more heavily rewarded than you would expect. They are more difficult to fill in a roto league than the sexier stats like home runs and RBI’s. For example, in a 12-team roto league, you should target 125-130 SB if you want a decent score in that category. You will need significantly more HR’s, around 190-200, to put up a decent roto score. This is significantly different from my h2h strategy where I will sometimes just punt on stolen bases and stack runs, HR’s and RBI to ensure victory each week in those categories. In roto, you can’t do that and expect to win a competitive league.

I am basing these rankings on a number of things such as past returns, age, expected returns, and gut feelings about players. I am going to go 15 deep at each position and give my reasoning for placement there. Please feel free to disagree, praise, refute or otherwise add to my list. Thank you very much.

Please note: I did not include players that had less than 10 games started at a position so David Ortiz is not ranked and would have been 4th on this list. He played 7 games there, so check your eligibility in your leagues. Garrett Atkins is another notable player that may be eligible in leagues with 10 games in (no starts).

Positional Rankings for 1st Baseman

1. Albert Pujols (age on opening day 28)
2007 stats: .327 avg, 99 Runs, 32 HR, 103 RBI, 2 SB
Reasoning Pujols has been a rock at the position for a number of years now. His homeruns dipped in 2007, but he has just been too good for too many years now and is only now entering his prime power ages of 27-32. I also can’t give up the 40 points of average that drafting Prince or Howard would include. However, if Prince and Howard mash 45-50 HR’s again and Albert doesn’t improve on his total of 32 from last year, expect an adjustment in the rankings next year. It would also be nice if he swipped 10-15 bags again. His lineup and protection is a concern, but can it really be any worse than last season?

2. Prince Fielder (age on opening day 23)
2007 stats: .288 avg. 109 runs, 50 HR, 119 RBI, 2 SB
50 Homeruns as a 23 year old? Just flat ridiculous. I think you will get about the same returns with Howard or Prince but the fact that Prince is much younger is scary, as he could just get much better. The jump from 2006 to 2007 may have been a sign of amazing things to come.

3. Ryan Howard (28)
2007 stats: .268 avg., 94 runs, 47 HR, 136 RBI, 1 SB
Which Ryan Howard is going to show up? 2006’s MVP or the very solid 2007 version that hit 45 points lower on the batting average and 11 less HR’s? My best guess would be something in between. The big fella battled leg injuries last season and that could have explained some of the drop. However, he also needs to cut down on the K’s, or he won’t approach that .313 average ever again.

4. Mark Teixiera (27)
2007 stats: .306 average, 86 runs, 30 HR’s, 105 RBI, 0 SB
Local college boy returns home and does well. I really like Teixiera in Atlanta for a full season. The Georgia Tech alum adjusted nicely after that trade and showed that he can still play in front of the home crowd and play well.

5. Lance Berkman (32)
2007 stats: .278 average, 95 runs, 34 HR’s, 102 RBI, 7 SB
Berkman will be the anchor in that Houston lineup once again this year. His numbers fell off by his standards in 2007 and he needed a big second half to return them to respectable levels. Was it a sign of decline or just a down year? A revamped lineup could rejuvenate the slugger.

6. Travis Hafner (30)
2007 stats: .266 average, 80 runs, 24 HR’s, 100 RBI, 1 SB
Pronk had a terrible 2007 and looked lost at the plate at times. He hit over .300 the two previous seasons, so I don't know what happened. Maybe there was a health issue that wasn't disclosed, you never know. Hopefully the slugger bounces back and returns to form in 2008. Check league eligibility as Hafner had 11 games at first in 2007.

7. Justin Morneau (26)
2007 stats: .271 average, 84 runs, 31 HR’s, 111 RBI, 1 SB
Morneau is the Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde of first baseman. Which one will show up? First half? Second Half? All year? It will drive you crazy. Guy has mass power though.

8. Carlos Pena (29)
2007 stats: .282 average, 99 runs, 46 HR’s, 121 RBI, 1 SB
46 Homeruns is 46 homeruns and can’t be ignored, but why do I get that Morgan Ensberg feeling from this guy? I think I am going to have a tough time bringing myself to draft him. I’ll rank him here for now, but buyer beware. I’m not real fond of guys finally “breaking out” when they are 29 years old.

9. Victor Martinez (29)
2007 stats: .301 average, 78 runs, 25 HR’s, 114 RBI, 0 SB
Now here is the weird part. I would clearly pick V-mart about 3-4 rounds ahead of other first basemen on this list because of the fact that he is catcher eligible and will be more valuable there. But who the heck drafts V-mart to play 1st? Eventually, this may be his permanent home though and this is where he would have been placed with 30 games played there in 2007.

10. Derrek Lee (32)
2007 stats: .317 average, 91 runs, 22 HR’s, 82 RBI, 6 SB
Where did the power go last year? He should rebound. That average and 42 doubles tells me that he is still making good contact.

11. Carlos Guillen (32)
2007 stats: .296 average, 86 runs, 21 HR’s, 102 RBI, 13 SB
Guillen had previously been an injury risk, but has now put in 2 solid seasons in a row. The move to first should help him out as will that strong Detroit lineup as will the fact that he can just flat hit. He will be ranked higher as a SS, but is a very safe pick as a first baseman as well. 10-15 SB’s is very nice to get from a first baseman as well.

12. Adrian Gonzalez (25)
2007 stats: .282 average, 101 runs, 30 HR’s, 101 RBI, 0SB
When this guy is hot, he is scalding hot, but when he is cold, he is ice cold. I don't know whether to expect him to hit .250 or .300. I love his swing though. It reminds me of Rafeal Palmeiro's and I really can't explain why this guy goes through cold spells. Maybe he will figure it out and get to that .300 plateau and stay there.

13. Paul Konerko (32)
2007 stats: .256 average, 70 runs, 31 HR’s, 90 RBI, 0 SB
Was the .256 a sign of decline or just an off year? He had 3 straight years of 35+ HR’s and hit .313 in 2006, but fell of quite a bit last year. He is a career .281 hitter and should rebound.

14. James Loney (23)
2007 stats: .331 average, 41 runs, 16 HR’s, 67 RBI, 0 SB
Loney should end up higher on this list in the future. I will tell you what makes me nervous right now is that his previous high for HR’s in a season is 11 in 504 AB’s in 2005. Those numbers look very nice and he is a guy that hits for a high average, but I have a hard time seeing the jump that others are expecting from 16 HR’s to 30 right away.

15. Todd Helton (34)
2007 stats: .320 average, 86 runs, 17 HR’s, 91 RBI, 0SB
The power is gone, but the great average remains. He finished second in the NL in OBP at .434. That Colorado lineup will provide many opportunities for runs and RBI’s.

Barely missed the cut: Alex Gordon, Joey Votto, Carlos Delgado (contract year or just done?), Kevin Youkillis, Nick Swisher

Beating the House--Divisional Playoffs

OUCH! After a nice end to the regular season, I did not have a good showing on Wild Card Weekend, losing three out of the four games...I went against my gut on the Redskins, completely underestimated the Giants and lost again when the Jags won but failed to cover...the Chargers bailed me out in a close one so I avoided a complete washout...all you can do is move forward so without any further ado...

Seattle (+7.5) at Green Bay-- Seahawks should be flying high enough to keep up in this one if not win outright...their passing game is as good as any and their pass rush is downright ferocious...Pack have had two weeks to prepare for this one and would love to establish the running game early with Ryan Grant...Pack wins but it's a close one...pick: Seahawks.

Jacksonville (+13) at New England-- Unlike other teams in a similar situation, I don't think the layoff will hurt the Pats...home crowd, primetime, perfect season still in sight...they won't be stopped but is the number justified? Jags are legitimate contenders but are running into what might be the best team in NFL history...Pats take off in second half...pick: Patriots.

San Diego (+9) at Indianapolis-- It seems like an eternity since we've seen the Colts starters all play...Manning and Co. should be ready to defend their title on their home turf...Norv Turner doesn't seem to get the ball to LT enough and that will cost him...the thought of relying on Philip Rivers, especially without safety valve Antonio Gates, should give Chargers fans nightmares...Colts break away eventually...pick: Colts.

New York Giants (+7.5) at Dallas-- I couldn't have been more wrong about the GMen last week...instead of running out of gas after close game with Pats, it obviously galvanized the team, spurring them on to an impressive road win over the Bucs...not sure they can pull if off again but I'll take my chances as Cowboys have not impressed me at all the last few weeks while struggling against Eagles and Panthers before meaningless game in RFK...Romo is distracted, TO isn't 100%...either way, I like the points here...pick: Giants.

Last Week: 1-3 To Date: 149-104-7

Play Action - Divisional

Postseason Fantasy Football isn't nearly as popular as its big brother, and the rule sets vary everywhere, but for the benefit of those of you who may be participating...

This is being written as though you are participating in the CBS SportsLine version of the game, where you can change a progressively decreasing amount of players per week.

Without further adieu, the Divisional Round Rankings.

Quarterback
1. Tom Brady vs. Jaguars - Why go against the guy now?

2. Tony Romo vs. Giants - The Giants are still soft against the pass, and while the questionable status of Terrell Owens hurts, the Cowboys will still sling it.

3. Peyton Manning vs. Chargers - Last time these 2 teams met, Manning threw 6 INTs. Look for him to avenge that mark. Some guy named Marvin Harrison will suit up for this game.

4. Brett Favre vs. Seahawks - Hope that the Packers don't have to play from behind, because if they do, Favre will make mistakes.

5. Matt Hasselbeck @ Packers - The ground game in Seattle is never a certainty. Deion Branch may return, and that will only help matters.

6. Eli Manning @ Cowboys - The Cowboys are pretty soft against the pass, and while having to rely on Elitarded is never a fun ride, the Giants will have to air it out.

7. David Garrard @ Patriots - Garrard limits mistakes, and the Patriots have been vulnerable against the pass recently. His WRs still suck, but the guy is quietly and consistently solid.

8. Philip Rivers @ Colts - Rivers looks erratic often, and the likely absence of Antonio Gates against a rock solid Colt pass defense isn't anything you want any part of.

Running Backs
1. LaDainian Tomlinson @ Colts- He faced a tougher test against the Titans and still scored. Plus, minus Gates, he should be at least 90% of the Chargers' offensive game plan. He will, however, likely be a player that you need to replace next week.

2. Marion Barber III vs. Giants - With TO hobbled, the Cowboys will likely unleash a few more runs. Given that Julius Jones sucks, The Barbarian should be the primary beneficiary.

3. Joesph Addai vs. Chargers - Well rested and facing the defense that gave up a record amount of yardage to Adrian Peterson. Seems like a desirable combo.

4. Ryan Grant vs. Seahawks - Seems to always break a long TD in every single game.

5. Brandon Jacobs @ Cowboys - The Cowboys are good against the run, but Jacobs is an absolute force near the goal line.

6. Laurence Maroney vs. Jaguars - You never really know if he'll get enough touches, but he certainly looked solid near the end of the season. Doesn't have to worry about that pesky wear & tear that many other RBs endured during the regular season.

7. Fred Taylor @ Patriots - The Renaissance of Fragile Freddie continues. Suddenly he's a big play threat again, and he even scores.

8. Maurice Jones-Drew @ Patriots - The goal line threat for the Jags. Plus he could always add a kick return TD.

9. Shaun Alexander @ Packers - Not anybody you really want to be relying on, but he's looked better recently than he did all season long. Still, the Pack is tough against the run.

10. Julius Jones vs. Giants - No thank you.

Wide Receivers
1. Randy Moss vs. Jaguars - Again, why would you go against him now?

2. Reggie Wayne vs. Chargers - The most consistent option on a potent offense, facing an up-and-down defense. What's not to like?

3. Greg Jennings vs. Seahawks - Faces a decent pass defense, but will definitely have a few long balls thrown his way.

4. Wes Welker vs. Jaguars - Plenty of touches to go around in New England.

5. Plaxico Burress @ Cowboys - Without Shockey, Plax is the obvious focus of the Giant passing game. Just hope that Eli can limit his mistakes.

6. Bobby Engram @ Packers - The most under-appreciated WR of the season will continue to post solid numbers.

7. D.J. Hackett @ Packers - Possibly the most talented of the Seahawk WRs. There are plenty of touches to go around for the Hawks, but this week there are 4 options rather than 3, assuming that Branch is good to go.

8. Terrell Owens vs. Giants - This is obviously a risky play. You're not even sure if he'll suit up yet, or, if he does, how much he'll actually play. Still, if he's active, he's dangerous.

9. Patrick Crayton vs. Giants - The Giants will likely focus on Jason Witten if TO is limited, which will open up the field for Crayton.

10. Donald Driver vs. Seahawks - Can he find the end zone in the postseason? He'll certainly see enough targets.

11. Chris Chambers @ Colts - Facing a tough test, and he won't have Gates to remove pressure from him. Still, if the Chargers need to pass, they'll look his way.

12. Marvin Harrison vs. Chargers - Supposedly he looks great now. It's been a long, long time since we've seen him though, and the Colts could just be blowing smoke. Still, if he's active, Peyton will find him.

Tight Ends
1. Jason Witten vs. Giants - Would benefit from an active TO, but he'll get his touches regardless.

2. Dallas Clark vs. Chargers - Solid red zone option.

3. Donald Lee vs. Seahawks - Also a solid red zone option.

4. Ben Watson vs. Jaguars - Can he rediscover his early season mojo? Probably not, but if you're in a pinch, this is as low as you want to drop.

Defense
1. Patriots vs. Jaguars - The Jags shouldn't have the weapons to score in bunches, but don't expect many turnovers either. Yes, there is a legitimate threat of the Patriots losing this game as well.

2. Colts vs. Chargers - Without Gates around, the Colts will stack the line against LT and force Philip Rivers to beat them. (Aw)Phil Rivers couldn't beat a dead horse, and will be responsible for at least 2 turnovers.

3. Cowboys vs. Giants - There could be more points than desired scored here, but still, you can't go wrong facing the enigmatic Eli Manning and his Turnover Machine.

4. Giants @ Cowboys - Getting risky here. With TO likely limited (I fully expect him to be active), the Cowboys will be less likely to convert on bombs. The offense was sluggish late in the season as well.

5. Packers vs. Seahawks - This game has shootout written all over it. Still, the Packers are a better all-around defense than the Seahawks.

6. Jaguars @ Patriots - Now we're really getting risky. The Jags' defense really isn't very good, but this team plays with a ton of heart.

7. Seahawks @. Packers - Hope that the Seahawks can build an early lead and force Favre into making mistakes.

8. Chargers @ Colts - You don't want any of this. Manning won't repeat his 6 INT performance. It shouldn't be a blowout, but there will be enough points scored.

Kickers
1. Nick Folk vs. Giants
2. Mason Crosby vs. Seahawks
3. Adam Vinatieri vs. Chargers
4. Stephen Gostkowski vs. Jaguars
5. Josh Brown @ Packers
6. Josh Scobee @ Patriots
7. Nate Kaeding @ Colts
8. Lawrence Tynes @ Cowboys

Baseball's Hangover

Baseball’s Hangover
An opinion piece.

As many of you awoke on New Year’s Day, you may have dealt with that groggy feeling that sometimes comes with a night of alcohol consumption and dealing with the aftermath. I hope that party went well. Sometimes things go so well that many of you may have had to purge yourself later that evening. I’m sorry if that happened to you, but maybe the good time was worth it. You will be paying for it though. Baseball is dealing with it’s own purging and hangover that a solid decade or more of steroid use and performance enhancing drugs will entail. And just like those suffering on New Year’s Day, they will also have to pay for it.

Let us start with the purging that should take place. As sad as it is, Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens must go. They were both heroes of mine as I grew up and watched their Herculean efforts unfold. What made them cheat? Was it the competitive fire that burns bright and pushes men like this to the edge of reason? Was it that historic home run chase with Sammy Sosa’s chest thumping or Mark McGwire’s rendition of Paul Bunyan chopping down fastballs with his mighty axe? Was it the insult to their pride that a post peak decline would entail as they spiraled down to become “average” ballplayers? We may never know.

These men represent the best and worst of the steroids era. Yes, I know, innocent until proven guilty right? Even though we know that the human body general declines after our peak years in the late 20’s and early 30’s. Those of you that are older and had a good time on New Year’s know exactly what I am talking about. It isn’t like it was at 23 anymore is it? Bonds collected MVP after MVP award while Clemens collected Cy Young awards. These men were icons in a sport that desperately needed them after the strike of 1994. They have refused to take responsibility and have tried to maintain whatever is left of their credibility and good names by accusing, denying, and pointing fingers. And in order for baseball to move on and cleanse itself, these two icons must move on as well.

I have one other candidate that baseball should purge itself from. Mr. Bud Selig. How many people believe that Bud was oblivious to what was happening on his watch as commissioner? Yeah, I believe that as much as I believe Barry Bonds CLEARly did not know what was in the cream he was applying to his body that had magical healing and muscle building powers. Without the BALCO scandal, would Mr. Selig have even responded to this crisis or would he have continued to sit on his hands like he did for a better part of a decade? The Mitchell Report is nice and all, but came a little late in the game. Just like Bonds and Clemens, Selig has resorted to finger pointing and denial and has not taken accountability for what happened on his watch. Just like any captain that should go down with his ship, Selig too must move on in order for baseball to fully cleanse itself.

I don’t have the answers. I wish I did. I do know that when baseball faced similar problems in the past, it required a commissioner with a backbone to stand up and do what needed to be done. A. Bartlett Giamatti did not make a popular decision when he exiled Pete Rose for life, but it had to be done. Kenesaw Mountain Landis took similar action with Shoeless Joe Jackson and the other Blacksox Scandal players. They sent a message and did what was necessary. The current commissioner seems unwilling to send that message and doesn’t have the backbone to do something deemed unpopular. Sometimes inaction is worse than making an unpopular decision. Maybe he didn’t see the steroids issue coming just like Captain Smith did not see that iceberg on that fateful day in 1912. It didn’t matter, it cost Smith his ship and his life and the steroids scandal needs to cost Selig his job.

So, with the New Year ringing in with celebrations and resolutions, I have one more resolution for Major League Baseball. Hold the men accountable for these actions, including Mr. Selig. Clean up baseball and restore it’s credibility. It won’t happen under the man that bears some responsibility for what happened in this era. Baseball needs a fresh face and a strong leader to deal with this crisis. Unfortunately, that may not happen.

As baseball hopefully makes the transition to being a credible sport again, those of us that play fantasy baseball will be confronted with many dilemmas as we rate major league talent. Who was using and who wasn’t? How will it impact what we think we know about the game? My best answer is that we may never know. The scope of this was obviously much bigger than many people thought a couple of years ago. Many people wanted to call Jose Canseco a media grubbing louse, which probably is true in some respects, but he was obviously telling the truth in many cases as people turned a blind eye. Just because the source is less than savory, doesn’t mean that his information isn’t true.

The Mitchell Report was only a very small segment of Major League Baseball and did not turn over every stone as advertised. It busted a few distributors and that fishing net did, in fact, net some big fish, but there are huge sections of baseball that did not get touched as some trainers refused to talk. Just think, there is a nutrionist/trainer in every locker room trying to help men get bigger. The Mitchell Report only got a few of them.

As you approach your fantasy drafts, the best advice I can give you is to be aware of the names that have already been mentioned. Where there is smoke, there is fire. Did Andy Pettite just use it when injured? How will it affect Brian Roberts, Jose Guillen, and the many others that have been named already? We will have to wait and see. The next few years in baseball will be very telling as many players, some we don’t even suspect, cycle off of whatever they have been putting into their bodies. But baseball will live on, just as it always has. I remember a quote from Field of Dreams that I will leave you with,

“The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. America has rolled by like an army of steamrollers. It’s been erased like a blackboard, rebuilt, and erased again. But, baseball has marked the time. This field, this game, is a part of our past, Ray. It reminds us of all that once was good, and could be again.”
-Terrance Mann (James Earl Jones)

And so, this era is forever marked, but baseball must cleanse itself and remind us all of what was once good, and could be good again.

Beating the House--Wild Card Weekend

My thanks to those of you who read this column throughout the season...I didn't show up until the third week but managed to post something every week, even if it was just the picks without commmentary...this was my first time writing such a column and, more importantly, subjecting myself to great scrutiny if I failed...I did manage to hit at a 59% clip on my selections and I'm sure most would agree that's a pretty decent rate of success...let's hope it carries over into the playoffs as well...

Washington (+3.5) at Seattle--This should be the best game of the weekend...Skins have been playing inspired ball since the death of their teammate Sean Taylor...not sure they move on here but they should be able to put up a great fight...the half-point makes it an easier play for the road dog...pick: Redskins.

Jacksonville (-3) at Pittsburgh--I would normally peg this game to be decided by a FG as well but Jags have cruised in hitting on all cylinders...even their backups played well last Sunday in a meaningless game...Steelers have backed in to playoffs and will miss Willie Parker and Troy Polamalu if he can't go...Jags have made a believer out of me and have to be considered the dark horse of the AFC...only road favorite this week...pick: Jaguars.

New York Giants (+3) at Tampa Bay--You would expect most people to jump all over the GMen after their heroic effort against the immortal Patriots...a fine effort indeed but I think it will prove to be detrimental to them...they are a banged-up bunch and that played the whole game while Bucs rested their starters...Eli and Big Blue shot their proverbial load already and don't see them doing it on the road...pick: Buccaneers.

Tennessee (+10) at San Diego--This is the biggest spread of the weekend but the easiest game to call...Bolts started the season as a major bust but got into gear when Norv decided to put the game in the capable hands of LT...Titans don't belong here and may not have Vince Young...even if he does play, it won't matter...Chargers roll at home...pick: Chargers.

Last Week: 11-5 Regular Season: 148-101-7