The End Around

I've decided to abandon the player rankings, due to the fact that they're likely unnecessary at this point, being so close to the season.
Instead, I will share view and opinions.


Today's topic is value picks and sleepers at WR.
Many players mis-classify value picks as "sleepers", but to me sleepers need to come very close to the end of a 12-team draft. These guys in this article are known players and are expected to perform well.

Please keep in mind that, at best, these guys should be considered for a WR3 roster spot on draft day. Some will break out, some won't.

I have included each player's ESPN Average Draft Position

Bernard Berrian - WR - Chicago Bears
ESPN ADP is 102.2, the 34th WR taken.

Berrian is far and away Chicago's best option. An excellent value for an 8th round choice.
Yes, there are very serious questions revolving around Sexy Rexy's abilities. But Berrian is in the final year of his contract, playing for the big bucks is an excellent motivator. His speed makes him a great big play threat.

Jacoby Jones - WR - Houston Texans
ADP ?

Lane College's finest NFL prospect since Fred Lane. Jones is raw and will take time to acclimate to the NFL style game, plus he'll be behind Kevin Walter to start the season. Jones qualifies as a true sleeper, especially given that I can't even find his Player Card on ESPN.
Rookie WRs are always a risk, especially those from small colleges, but few have Jones' ability...plus hey, didn't some guy named Colston come for a small school?

D.J. Hackett - WR - Seattle Seahawks
ADP of 120.5, 41st WR.

With D-Jax gone to Frisco, Hackett will start the season as Seattle's WR2...there's a very real possibility that he'll put up better numbers than Deion Branch. A fantastic value in Round 10. Unlike the previously mentioned WRs, Hackett has a good QB throwing to him, as long as Hasselbeck can stay healthy. Don't worry about the presence of Nate Burleson.

Devery Henderson - WR - New Orleans Saints
ADP 118, 40.

Henderson is a hip choice to be a great sleeper this season. I'm not all that big on him personally, he drops far too many passes and is only 5'11. Still, Brees will be airing it out in N'awlins. Somebody other than Reggie Bush and Marques Colston will have to see plenty of targets.

James Jones - WR - Green Bay Packers
ADP ?

He's also lacking an ESPN Player Card. Jones has been breaking out in the preseason. He'll likely be Green Bay's WR3 to start the season, but I consider him to be a superior option to Greg Jennings, whom he'll overtake early in the season. Brett Favre has compared Jones to Sterling Sharpe. Favre says a lot of overly optimistic things these days, but that's a nice comparison to have.

Jerry Porter - WR - Oakland Raiders
ADP 125, 43.

Yes, the QB situation in Oakland is weak...everything about the Raiders is pretty weak. Porter averaged 970 yards and 7 TDs from 2004-05, before last season's big circus. Now he's somewhat of a forgotten man. Why not take a 12th round flier?

Brandon Marshall - WR - Denver Broncos
ADP 147.4, 57.

Marshall is a big target and should be starting WR2 for the Broncos this season. He's had several off-season injuries, but claims to feel great entering the season. There are several other options around to steal catches, and Marshall is still learning his way around the NFL, so expect inconsistency. Marshall's nickname is "Baby T.O.", which, assuming we're talking about ability and not mentality, that's very nice...let's hope it's not like "Baby Jordan".

Top 10 WRs

10. Javon Walker - Denver Broncos
Experience: 6th Season
Bye Week: 6

2 Year Averages (2004, 2006):
Yards Receiving: 1233 (77 YPG)
Touchdowns: 11
(2005 not included due to injury)

Upside: Despite a very shaky QB situation last season, Walker thrived in his return from a torn ACL. He should only improve this season as the post-surgery jitters should be behind him. Jay Cutler should also be much-improved. Doesn't have anyone to steal looks.

Concern: Walker had an MRI, due to an "uncomfortable sensation" on August 16, you never want to hear a WR with a knee surgery complaining about it.

9. T.J. Houshmadzadeh - Cincinnati Bengals
Experience: 7th Season
Bye Week: 5

3 Year Averages (2004-06):
Yards Receiving: 1005 (63 YPG)
Touchdowns: 7

Who's your mama?

Upside: Put up more consistent numbers than Chad Johnson in 2006, and is possibly a better red zone target. Ocho Quattro may even get more touches with Chris Henry out for the first half of the season.

Concern: He's never started all 16 games in any season. Has only topped 1000 yards once (last year). Won't have as much yardage as other Top 10 WRs.

8. Roy Williams - Detroit Lions
Experience: 4th Season
Bye Week: 6

3 Year Averages (2004-06):
Yards Receiving: 938 (59 YPG)
Touchdowns: 8

Upside: Mike Martz claims that "it's scary how much more Williams can improve." In year 2 in the Martz offense, it'd be great to see some further improvement. Williams makes some of the most beautiful catches in the NFL. If he gets more red zone targets, he'll easily be a Top 5 WR. With their sorry running game (sans Kevin Jones), the Lions will be passing early and often.

Concern: 2006 was Williams' first 16 game season, his previous high was 12 starts. Calvin Johnson is also in town to take away some touches. Can he remain healthy for 2 straight seasons?

7. Larry Fitzgerald - Arizona Cardinals
Experience: 4th Season
Bye Week: 8

3 Year Averages (2004-06):
Yards Receiving: 1045 (65 YPG)
Touchdowns: 8

Upside: Saw his numbers drop fairly significantly in 2006 with a rookie QB and an injured hamstring. Should rebound nicely with Leinart's expected emergence and better health. At just 24, he still hasn't come close to reaching his ceiling. Will see more red zone targets than Boldin.

Concern: Leinart is expected to begin to break out this year, but he still hasn't really proven anything, and he's still behind a shaky O-Line. Ken Whisenhunt is known for being conservative, as opposed to Dennis Green's ass-crowning "offensive genius". Will the young Cards adapt well to a new coach?

6. Reggie Wayne - Indianapolis Colts
Experience: 7th Season
Bye Week: 6

3 Year Averages (2004-06):
Yards Receiving: 1192 (74 YPG)
Touchdowns: 9

Upside: Plenty of balls to go around in Indy, Wayne is their big play threat. Could possibly get even more looks as Harrison isn't getting any younger. Has received more targets every season of his career.

Concern: Doesn't get the red zone looks that Harrison gets. His 12 in 2004 is his only season with double-digit TD receptions. Had a serious case of the dropsies in 2006.

5. Terrell Owens - Dallas Cowboys
Experience: 12th Season
Bye Week: 8

2 Year Averages (2004, 2006):
Yards Receiving: 1190 (74 YPG)
Touchdowns: 14
(2005 not included due to meltdown)

Can T.O. behave for 2 straight seasons?

Upside: #2 WR in fantasy in 2006. Still a gamebreaker after all this time. Hauls in TDs by the bushel. Allegedly likes working with Tony Romo, and happy Parcells is gone.

Concern: Seriously, when can't you be concerned about T.O. He has a new coach that could lead to new conflicts. Don't forget that he got along with Donovan McNabb swimmingly at first as well. Who knows how long it'll be until the next suicide attempt or driveway workout.

4. Steve Smith - Carolina Panthers
Experience: 7th Season
Bye Week: 7

2 Year Averages (2005-06):
Yards Receiving: 1365 (85 YPG)
Touchdowns: 11
(2004 not included due to injury)

Upside: Far and away the top option on his team. Also has added a rushing TD the past 2 seasons. As Smith goes, so goes the Panthers' season.

Concern: Jake Delhomme struggles mightily with inconsistency, if he's ousted for David Carr, who knows if that's an upgrade or a cause for concern.

3. Torry Holt - St. Louis Rams
Experience: 9th Season
Bye Week: 9

3 Year Averages (2004-06):
Yards Receiving: 1297 (81 YPG)
Touchdowns: 10

Has Big Game begun a decline? How's the knee?

Upside: Holt lead the league in 2006 red zone targets. Plays in a pass happy offense. Will hopefully regain some of 2006's lost explosiveness due to his knee injury.

Concern: At the start of August, Holt claimed his surgically repaired knee was at 70%...will it be alright at the start of the regular season? At 31, there is a threat of skill decline.

2. Chad Johnson - Cincinnati Bengals
Experience: 7th Season
Bye Week: 5

3 Year Averages (2004-06):
Yards Receiving: 1358 (85 YPG)
Touchdowns: 8

Will Ohco Cinco continue celebrate like a rock star?

Upside: More total yardage than Harrison, participating in another of the NFL's most dynamic offenses. Holding a contest for fan suggested touchdown celebrations. The suspension of Chris Henry should lead to more targets.

Concern: Only 1 double-digit touchdown season, 2003 (10 TDs). Cincy spreads the ball around plenty. Shouldn't repeat 2006's slow first half.

1. Marvin Harrison - Indianaplois Colts
Experience: 12th Season
Bye Week: 6

3 Year Averages (2004-06):
Yards Receiving: 1208 (76 YPG)
Touchdowns: 13

Will Peyton's favorite target add a 9th straight season of double-digit touchdowns?

Upside: Harrison has been as consistent as they come, he's had double-digit TD's every season since 1998, when he only played in 12 games. Not as flashy as other options, he's reliable as they come. Peyton loves to air it out.

Concern: Other than his age (35 by Week 1), none. Age will eventually catch up to him, but he's in probably the NFL's most dynamic offense.

Rest Of The RB Pack

In the interest of moving along and covering other positions, here are the rest of my RB Rankings:

16. Edgerrin James - Arizona Cardinals (Bye Week: 8)
Edge had nearly 1400 yards last season and was still considered a huge disappointment.
No, he won't be returning to his Indy stats this season, but look for an improvement on the 6 TDs in '06 with Leinart being more comfortable and the O-Line slightly improved.

17. Thomas Jones - New York Jets (10)
Perception of his versatility is really greater than the actuality. He doesn't put up stellar receiving numbers. Likely to lose goal line carries to Leon Washington. That said, the Jets love to pound the ball (or at least not put too much burden on Pennington), so Jones should be toting the rock plenty in The Meadowlands.

18. Brandon Jacobs - New York Giants (9)
Tiki's former TD vulture is a super trendy pick to break out this season. Jacobs is the definition of a power RB, and his 4.4 YPC in '06 also leads me to be excited about his potential. He only had 99 carries in '06 though, so it remains to be seen whether or not he'll wear down after mid-season. Most surprising will be the fact that also actually contributes more to the passing game than many of those ranked ahead of him.

19. Maurice Jones-Drew - Jacksonville Jaguars (4)
The Pinball was the waiver wire darling of 2006. He is currently among the most over-hyped, reached for picks in fantasy. MJD is technically still Fred Taylor's backup, plus Greg Jones may pilfer a few TDs this season. Still, that 5.7 YPC is tough to ignore, and I believe he'll remain Jacksonville's top scoring option. Besides, we all know Fraud Taylor cannot be relied on to stay healthy from minute-to-minute.

20. Deuce McAllister - New Orleans Saints (4)
Part of quite possibly the best RBBC that the NFL has ever seen. Around 1250 total yards and 10 TDs in 2006, Deuce bounced back nicely from an injury marred 2005. Reggie Bush is now the home run threat in The Big Easy, and although most see him as an RB that contributes significantly to the passing game, keep in mind that McAllister has not had a receiving TD since 2002. Hope for a repeat of 2006 at best.

21. Marion Barber III - Dallas Cowboys (8)
An absolute touchdown machine in 2006. Barber should be seeing an increased workload this season, although he will still share time with Julius Jones. The 16 TDs may be too difficult to repeat, but being the #1 goal line option on a high powered offense is a nice spot to be in.

22. Clinton Portis - Washington Redskins (4)
Those that have read this blogs' very first entry know that I will be doing my best to avoid Portis. The knee injury, the emergence of Ladell Betts, the rapidly decreasing YPC. All big, bright red flags. If he stays healthy, he'll be a solid contributor, but that's a mighty big "if".

23. Ahman Green - Houston Texans (10)
Plenty of people will tell you that Green will fail this season, just like they said last year. Green won't give you anything to blow your socks off, but he's a solid gamer at this point in the draft. He'll put up good receiving numbers. Plus...hey, Ron Dayne thrived in this offense.

24. Carnell Williams - Tampa Bay Bucs (10)
The Cadillac was broken down in 2006. Still, his production in 2005 is hard to ignore. I am predicting a revival in 2007, although 10 TDs may be out of reach.

25. Marshawn Lynch - Buffalo Bills (6)
Finally, a rookie. Nothing generates excitement quite like rookies. That said, this isn't exactly the world's most explosive offense, or an elite O-Line. The upside is certainly there, though. That cannot be said for a ton of the options below him.

OTHER NOTABLES:
LaMont Jordan - Oakland Raiders
A first-round pick by many in 2006, Jordan was quite possibly the game's biggest bust. But he should have no competition for the first four weeks with Rhodes suspended. Other than San Diego, the first half schedule is cake.

Jamal Lewis - Cleveland Browns
The Browns will be awful this year. Lewis was bad last season on a much better team. Still, with a terrible QB situation, Lewis will be receiving a ton of touches in 2007.

Ladell Betts - Washington Redskins
Should come off the board very soon after Portis. If Portis goes down once again, Betts has shown that he can be a star. Even if Portis doesn't go down, Betts will get plenty of opportunities to shine.

Chester Taylor - Minnesota Vikings
This is also a lackluster offense. He'll lose playing time to Adrian Peterson, but is still the starting RB. Peterson is never a guarantee to remain healthy.

Adrian Peterson - Minnesota Vikings
All Day is most likely to be grabbed in the Top 25, although he shouldn't be. The offense won't put up enough points, he needs to prove that his collarbone will hold up, and he's behind Taylor on the depth chart.

Jerious Norwood - Atlanta Falcons
Monster YPC in 2006. Warrick Dunn is old and coming off back surgery. Norwood has a chance to be the break-out player of the year in 2007. Too bad about that whole thing with Joey Harrington running the offense.

DeAngelo Williams - Carolina Panthers
Has not yet unseated DeShaun Foster for DeStarting Job. It's only a matter of time though. An excellent RB3 grab.

LenDale White - Tennessee Titans
The Titans really...really want LenDale Whale to start, but with every Krispy Kreme, White pisses away his opportunities. The Tennessee backfield should really be avoided at all costs.

Brandon Jackson - Green Bay Packers
He's really much further down the board at this point, but if you can get him as an RB4, it's a fantastic pick. He'll be starting Week 1 over Vernand Morency.

Kevin Jones - Detroit Lions
He'll be out for the first 6 weeks, but will be a welcome addition in the second half with what should be a truly dynamic offense. He'll have plenty of rust to knock off and will, at least initially, share time with Tatum Bell, but he's a fine end of draft option.

Top 11-15 RBs

15. Cedric Benson - Chicago Bears
Experience: 3rd Season
Bye Week: 9

1 Year Totals (2006):
Yards Rushing: 647 (4.1 YPC)
Yards Receiving: 54 (3 YPG)
Touchdowns: 6

No longer in a time-share, will Benson be as good as he says he is?

Concern: Benson is a risk, there are red flags everywhere. He's disliked by teammates, he plays with an awful QB, hasn't proven himself yet, all-around distraction. Contributes nothing in the passing game. Will lose time on obvious passing downs.

Upside: Chemistry conflicts don't necessarily result in poor performance. Will be the top goal line option. Should be motivated to finally back up all of his talking.

14. Ronnie Brown - Miami Dolphins
Experience: 3rd Season
Bye Week: 9

2 Year Averages (2005-06):
Yards Rushing: 958 (4.3 YPC)
Yards Receiving: 254 (16 YPG)
Touchdowns: 5

Will a new Coach in town help Brown finally break out?

Concern: Hasn't shown that he can handle a 300 carry season, Brown has been a disappointment thus far in his career. Miami's offensive line is pretty bad, as is its offense in general. Will lose some touches to Lorenzo Booker.

Upside: Brown is versatile, he will help in the passing game as long as Trent Green can get him the ball. Cam Cameron has a proven track record of success with versatile backs, having worked with some Tomlinson guy. Brown is 10lbs lighter and should be the #1 red zone option.

13. Willis McGahee - Baltimore Ravens
Experience: 5th Season
Bye Week: 8

3 Year Averages (2004-06):
Yards Rushing: 1122 (3.9 YPC)
Yards Receiving: 168 (10.5 YPG)
Touchdowns: 8

McGahee claimed to lack motivation in Buffalo. Will he finally break out behind Baltimore's excellent, but aging, O-Line?

Concern: A 3.9 YPC is ugly. The Ravens have an extremely limited passing game that McGahee won't contribute a whole lot to.

Upside: He won't lose touches in the red zone and should improve upon his previous disappointing 6 and 5 TD campaigns. He claims to be motivated to prove that he belongs in the upper echelon of NFL RBs.

12. Travis Henry - Denver Broncos
Experience: 7th Season
Bye Week: 6

3 Year Averages (2004-06):
Yards Rushing: 624 (4.1 YPC)
Yards Receiving: 80 (5 YPG)
Touchdowns: 2

Is this a reach? His numbers are skewed very low since he was not a starter in 2004-05. If you average his '02, '03 (starter in Buffalo) and '06 (eventual Tennessee starter) numbers...1335 rushing, 182 receiving, 11 TDs...you get a very nice NFL back.

Concern: You can never really trust Mike Shanahan. Henry will likely lose goal line carries to Cecil Sapp or Mike Bell, whichever wins RB2 should be handcuffed by all Henry owners. Hasn't played in 16 games since 2002. Has worn down late in games in the past.

Upside: He is now playing in RB Shangri-La. Should be fresh due to lack of playing time the past 3 seasons. Should receive 20 touches per game.

11. Laurence Maroney - New England Patriots
Experience: 2nd Season
Bye Week: 10

1 Year Totals (2006):
Yards Rushing: 745 (4.3 YPC)
Yards Receiving: 194 (12.1 YPG)
Touchdowns: 7

Officially "the man" now that Corey Dillon is no longer in town. Technically didn't start any games in 2006. Can he hold up?

Concern: He's in the exact same boat as Addai in that he's never been outside of a RBBC situation, even in college. He's been held out of contact drills this preseason. Can he handle the beating? He will also lose some touches, and more importantly touchdowns, to Kevin Faulk and Sammy Morris. Needs to run more North-South instead of dancing in the backfield.

Upside: Showed excellent skills in his 2006 action. Should receive at least 100 extra carries this season. The Patriots brought in plenty of new talent at WR to keep teams from stacking the box. Runs in another of the NFL's most dynamic offenses.

Top 6-10 RBs

10. Brian Westbrook - Philadelphia Eagles
Experience: 6th Season
Bye Week: 5

3 Year Averages (2004-06):
Yards Rushing: 882 (4.6 YPC)
Yards Receiving: 672 (42 YPG)
Touchdowns: 9

The Eagles are a pass first offense, Westbrook has averaged only 191 carries per year over the past 3 seasons. He makes up for it as the best receiving RB in the league.

Concern: Not as much of a concern as a given, Westbrook WILL miss time. 2006 was his career high with 14 games started, in '05 and '04 he only started 12 games. He'd be higher on this list if he wasn't injury prone.

Upside: He proved last season that he can thrive given 20 carries per game, posting an impressive 5.1 YPC. Will Coach Reid give him that, or will it once again be the McNabb show? Reid has claimed that they will run more.

9. Rudi Johnson - Cincinnati Bengals
Experience: 7th Season
Bye Week: 5

3 Year Averages (2004-06):
Yards Rushing: 1407 (4.1 YPC)
Yards Receiving: 99 (6.2 YPG)
Touchdowns: 12

Another true workhorse. Will provide you with consistency (3 straight years of 12 TDs). Plays in another truly dynamic offense.

Concern: Mammoth workload for 3 straight seasons has lead him to miss 1 game in 2006 and two in 2005. Will he hold up well in another season of around 340 carries? His lack of receiving skills get him removed on 3rd and long.

Upside: He's been as consistent as they come for 3 straight years. The Bengals will continue to put up points in bushels. Kenny Irons is on IR and Chris Perry is always injured, so there aren't any concerns with his status as the feature back.

8. Reggie Bush - New Orleans Saints
Experience: 2nd Season
Bye Week: 4

1 Year Total (2006):
Yards Rushing: 565 (3.6 YPC)
Yards Receiving: 742 (46.4 YPG)
Touchdowns: 8 (Not including punt returns)

It took Bush some time to get rolling in 2006, but once he did, he immediately became one of the game's most exciting players. He's also a home run threat every time he touches the ball.

Concern: Will split time with Deuce McAllister, and lose time in the red zone, which is why I have him rated this low. Will be streaky, with the occasional stinker as well as the occasional monster game.

Upside: Bush is basically the poster boy for the term "upside". Now that he has a complete tour of duty through a NFL season, he should only improve on his '06 numbers...especially his early season numbers. McAllister underwent another knee surgery in the offseason, so Bush may see his workload increase slightly.

7. Willie Parker - Pittsburgh Steelers
Experience: 4th Season
Bye Week: 6

2 Year Averages (2005-06):
Yards Rushing: 1348 (4.6 YPC)
Yards Receiving: 220 (6.9 YPG)
Touchdowns: 12

Faaaaast Willie.
Touchdowns are skewed low due to his losing TD's to Jerome Bettis in 2005. Parker is a home run threat every time he touches the ball.

Concern: Limited vision, he had 6 games in 2006 with a sub-65 yard rushing output. Won't contribute much of anything in the passing game.

Upside: The Steelers are a run-first offense, it won't change under Coach Tomlin. He also doesn't have to worry about sharing carries with anybody. Showed last season that he can hold up for the duration of an NFL season as the #1 option.

6. Joseph Addai - Indianapolis Colts
Experience: 2nd Season
Bye Week: 6

1 Year Total (2006):
Yards Rushing: 1081 (4.8 YPC)
Yards Receiving: 325 (20.3 YPG)
Touchdowns: 8


No longer in a RBBC, it's time for Addai to prove himself, the Colts have no reasonable safety net behind him, so it's make or break time.
He's in the potent Colt offense, where there has been talk of getting him even more involved in the passing game.


Concern: Addai has never been outside of a RBBC...well, pehaps in high school, but not as a rookie, not at LSU. Can he hold up with around 100 extra carries and double the catches? Tends to struggle at the goal line.

Upside: He should rival Jackson, Westbrook and Bush for the league lead in receptions by a RB. He plays in one of the NFL's most dominant offenses and has nobody to steal touches from him. Certainly has the potential to be a Top 4 RB.

Top 5 RBs

These rankings are based on a standard redraft league.
YPC = Yards Per Carry
YPG = Yards Per Game (Always based on 16 games)


5. Frank Gore - San Francisco 49ers
Experience: 3rd Season
Bye Week: 6

1 Year Total (2006):
Yards Rushing: 1695 (5.4 YPC)
Yards Receiving: 485 (30.3 YPG)
Touchdowns: 9

Last season's breakout sensation.
He has very limited wear & tear, but is recovering from a broken hand. Gore has arguably the biggest bandwagon beyond the Top 2 RBs.
Will he launch himself up amongst LT and S-Jax this season?

Concern: Gore has only 1 season as a feature back. His comfort level using his broken hand is a major key...will it cause him to fumble? Will he be as effective in the passing game?
He tends to struggle at the goal line, therefore, I can't rank him up there with the touchdown machines above.

Upside: I don't think last season was a fluke at all. Gore plays in a rapidly emerging offense, for a rapidly improving team. The 49ers went out and brought in all sorts of help via free agency. His ceiling is higher than Alexander's.

4. Shaun Alexander - Seattle Seahawks
Experience: 8th Season
Bye Week: 8

3 Year Averages (2004-06):
Yards Rushing: 1491 (4.6 YPC)
Yards Receiving: 99 (6.2 YPG)
Touchdowns: 17

The former TD King's value is down slightly this season following his 2006 (10 starts) that was marred by a broken foot. Prior to that, Alexander had always been a highly reliable workhorse...those are the only 6 games he's missed in his NFL career.
His 3-year splits are skewed low due to his lost 2006. The guy puts up impressive numbers year in and year out.

Concern: There is no denying that Alexander has endured a tremendous workload. He's had 325+ carries per year every season, not counting 2006, since 2003. He figures to slow down sooner rather than later. His YPC dipped from 5.1 in 2005 to 3.6 in 2006, but that is due more to the injury than to declining skills. Won't give you much of anything in the passing game.

Upside: He's still a touchdown machine. That is exactly what you want in fantasy. Prior to 2006 he was basically as automatic as they come. The fact that some people are concerned about his return makes him a gift if he slides past #4 overall.

3. Larry Johnson - Kansas City Chiefs
Experience: 5th Season
Bye Week: 8

2 Year Averages (2005-06):
Yards Rushing: 1770 (4.7 YPC)
Yards Receiving: 377 (23.6 YPG)
Touchdowns: 20

2005. 9 games started. 1750 yards. 20 TDs.
What else really needs to be said about LJ's ridiculous potential? The guy averages over 2000 combined yards per season.
He's a 5th year back, but is only entering his 3rd year as the featured back.
Despite the presence of Tony Gonzalez, he easily remains the Chiefs' #1 red zone option.

Concern: RBs with Johnson's 2006 workload (416 carries) have historically nosedived in the following seasons and never recovered. See Jamal Anderson and Jamal Lewis. He has an awful QB situation, the Offensive Line is patchwork and old. Has not yet officially signed his contract extension.

Upside: Despite those facts, LJ is still young and will be constantly fed the ball. The contract extension is imminent. Plus, just look at those 2005 numbers.

2. Steven Jackson - St. Louis Rams
Experience: 4th Season
Bye Week: 9

2 Year Averages (2005-06):
Yards Rushing: 1287 (4.3 YPC)
Yards Receiving: 563 (35.1 YPG)
Touchdowns: 13

Jackson only started 3 games in 2004, therefore, his stats are not included from that season.
The Rams still love to air it out, but he'll likely give you more receiving yards than LT, plus with 3 fewer seasons of wear & tear, his ceiling may actually be higher. If you don't have the #1 overall pick in your draft, you really can't go wrong taking Jackson at #2. There are question marks for each and every RB afterwards.

Concern: He's only had 1 season to prove himself, but I'm sold.

Upside: He's young, has had a limited workload so far, and much like Tomlinson, he has excellent weapons surrounding him to limit defensive pressure.

1. LaDainian Tomlinson - San Diego Chargers
Experience: 7th Season
Bye Week: 7

3 Year Averages (2004-06):
Yards Rushing: 1537 (4.5 YPC)
Yards Receiving: 440 (27.5 YPG)
Touchdowns: 23 (Not including Passes)

Is there really any debate here?
Averaging nearly 2000 combined yards and 23 TDs per season?! That's just obscene. If you don't take LT with the #1 pick, you should just mail in your payment and not bother with any further participation.

Concern: He's had a very high workload throughout his career. The Chargers' primary game plan is still LT right, LT left and LT up the gut...with a little LT in the flats for flavor. Realistically, no chance of matching last season's insane output.

Upside: With Philip Rivers gaining growth and becoming a comfortable NFL QB, along with excellent weapons in Antonio Gates and Vincent Jackson, defenses cannot simply stack the box in order to attempt to limit LT.

Coach Janky Spanky

Ahh...Coach Janky Spanky, Southeast Jerome, Dolla Bill, Dr. I Don't Know. All fond memories of the many faces of Clinton Portis.

Portis is currently going as the 27th overall player selected in ESPN Live Drafts. Not a bad 3rd round choice if he can revert back to his 2005 form (1516 rushing yards, 216 receiving yards, 11 TDs)...but alas, there lies the problem.

In 2006 Portis was injured after only 8 games, in his downtime Ladell Betts (66th overall average) absolutely shined to the tune of 1154 rushing yards. Add in the fact that he contributed more receiving yards (445) than Portis has ever had, and you're looking at a full-blown time-share.
Combine that with the fact that Portis has seen his rushing average fall to 3.8, 4.1 and 4.3 over his three seasons with the Redskins, and you're looking at a rapidly declining player.
A far cry from the consecutive 5.5 yards/per that he posted in Denver.

Now, I'm not saying that you should rush out and select Betts (4.7 yards/per in 2006) over Portis. But if you simply must take Portis, then Betts becomes an essential handcuff a couple of rounds later. Do you really want to devote 2 of your first 6 or 7 picks to 2 guys that will be competing for one spot?
Do you want your #3 pick to have serious injury concerns, having not participated in full contact drills yet this preseason?
Can the situation in Washington really resolve itself as well as it did in New Orleans last season?
Will Portis spend more time on the field this season, or more time defending Michael Vick?

Personally, I'd feel better if, at the 27th pick, I ended up with Thomas Jones, Edgerrin James, Marion Barber or Marshawn Lynch. Sure, Jones has his own minor injury concern, Edge was a "bust" last season, Barber will lose a few carries to Julius Jones and Lynch is a rookie...but these are all risks I'd rather assume that what Portis brings to the table.
And, by the way...the fact that the player taken, on average, immediately after Portis is Reggie Wayne...it speaks volumes about Fantasy's obsession with RBs.

If you find yourself in that situation, do yourself a favor and take Wayne. When Week 3 rolls around and you have an easy decision to make by starting Wayne...have a good chuckle at the expense of the Portis owner that is stressing over whether to start him, Betts or some other RB that is assured the bulk of the carries.