Wheel & Deal - Week 5

A look at who to unload for more than market value and who to buy on the cheap on your path to stealing a championship.


BUY LOW:
Larry Johnson - RB - Kansas City Chiefs
You window may have closed to truly buy low on LJ with his impressive performance against the Chargers. Alas, his value is still lower than standard market value and his schedule is about to turn into cream cheese after his Week 5 match up against the Jaguars.

Willie Parker - RB - Pittsburgh Steelers
Fast Willie was shut down by the Cardinals in Week 4. He's still averaging slightly over 100 yards per game on the ground, but has a disappointing 1 TD. See if his owner is frustrated with his first round choice and try to steal him away.

Thomas Jones - RB - New York Jets
Jones has always been an overrated player, and his numbers this year are terrible. That said, he is a feature back that is a good receiver and you can currently grab him very cheap. His performance thus far has been hindered by a calf injury.

Frank Gore - RB - San Francisco 49ers
He totaled 3 TDs in the first two weeks. He hasn't scored since, has totaled only 118 yards on the ground the past two weeks and has caught fumblitis. His value should get even lower after Week 5, when he faces a tough match up against the Raven defense, plus the Trent Dilfer factor drags his value down as well. Alex Smith should be back sooner than later and Gore remains the 49ers' first, second and third best option.

Steve Smith - WR - Carolina Panthers
Yes, his value takes a hit with David Carr at the helm. But there's absolutely no chance that he just disappears like he has the past 2 weeks. Let's keep in mind, this is the same David Carr that got Andre Johnson 100+ receptions in 2006.

Torry Holt - St. Louis Rams
He has yet to top 75 receiving yards in a single game. He gets a new QB this week. Frerotte was decent as a starting NFL QB in 2005, and the Rams do still have some decent weapons, namely Holt. His value shouldn't be able to get any lower and if you can get him for a song, you should.

Lee Evans - Buffalo Bills
His value is on the rise after finally cashing in a respectable performance in Week 4. Your window to buy low is almost over.

Jeremy Shockey - New York Giants
His best game so far this season has been a 5 catch, 79 yard game in Week 3. He has yet to haul in a TD. Plax and his bad wheel have taken away his red zone targets. He should rebound and start catching some TDs very soon, he's a red zone monster.

SELL HIGH:
Daunte Culpepper - Oakland Raiders
He scored 5 TDs in Week 4...on 75 yards passing. Try to convince some poor schlub that vintage Daunte is back getting his roll on and steal a solution to one of your depth issues. Culpepper isn't guaranteed a starting spot when Josh McCown is healthy, and could eventually be replaced by JaMarcus Russell late in the season anyway.

Randy Moss - WR - New England Patriots
Alright, Patriots homers, let's not work yourself into a lather. I believe that Moss will remain a Top 5 WR all season long. But, so far he's been putting up Tecmo Bowl numbers, and he can't keep that up. Vintage Randy may be back, but you can currently bring in quite the haul for him if your team has holes. His value won't get any higher than it currently is. If you need to make a move, you need to make a move.

Jerry Porter - WR - Oakland Raiders
He's likely available on a lot of waiver wires. If you've been holding onto him, hype his 2 TD game as loudly as you can. Hype him as Culpepper's new Randy Moss. The fact is, last week's 52 yards is also his season high and Ronald Curry is a much better option in Oakland. If you've held onto him this long, look to get what you can.

Dwayne Bowe - WR - Kansas City Chiefs
Yes, he's had consecutive impressive outings. He also plays for a terrible team, plus he's a rookie that was plagued by drops in college. Maybe he's legit, maybe not. If you can trade him away for someone that will provide consistent value, you should. He could be the second-coming of Marc Boerigter.

DON'T BUY LOW:
Marc Bulger - QB - St. Louis Rams
A QB with 2 broken ribs that is currently riding the pine. No thanks.

Cedric Benson - Chicago Bears
Lovie Smith promises to get Benson more work. Take a wait and see approach.

Javon Walker - Denver Broncos
You don't want a WR having knee problems in the same knee that had major surgery 2 years ago.

Wheel & Deal - Week 4

It's time to discuss players that should either be sold high, or bought low following their Week 3 performance.

Alternatively, you can use this as a list of players to avoid buying high on and players that perhaps you should hold on to due to their frustrating recent output.

Players to Sell High:

Brett Favre - QB - Green Bay Packers
Favre makes this list because he was likely drafted as your backup. Assuming the player you drafted as your starter is performing well, and not a huge injury concern (McNabb), you should always look to trade away depth to fill holes in your roster. Favre will continue to sling it, given the sorry state of the Green Bay ground game, he has high quality WRs, but we all know that sooner or later, he's going to start putting up INTs.

Ronnie Brown - RB - Miami Dolphins
Brown absolutely shredded the Jets this week. Coach Cameron said that he wanted Brown more involved, and he certainly delivered...Jesse Chatman didn't even touch the ball. However, this was also Brown's only decent performance so far this season and I don't have faith that he'll suddenly become consistent. If you can get a high-level RB2 for him now, you should. If you could get Reggie Bush for him, you definitely should.

DeShaun Foster - RB - Carolina Panthers
Although he's probably pulled far enough ahead of DeAngelo Williams to not worry about looking over his shoulder, Foster is always a threat to get injured. He's never been an exciting guy to own. You could possibly get a more reliable RB2 for him.

Adrian Peterson - RB - Minnesota Vikings
Some people have a huge man-crush on All Day. He's looked great in Weeks 1 and 3. The problem is, the Vikings just aren't going to score many points. Peterson will also start losing some touches to Chester Taylor starting in Week 4, plus Peterson's injury history must be factored in as well. Again, I think that Reggie Bush would be a nice target.

Kevin Curtis - WR - Philadelphia Eagles
First, a disclaimer. I believe that Curtis cashes in another high quality performance against the weak Giants pass defense in Week 4, and he appears to have established himself as Philly's WR1.
That said, his value will not get any higher than it is right now. If you're someone that owns one of the recently injured big name RBs, it's time to shop Curtis for a RB2 caliber RB.

Braylon Edwards - WR - Cleveland Browns
Yes, he appeared here the last time I wrote a buy low/sell high, and has continued to perform well. Still, I worry about the very shaky Cleveland QB situation. If you can deal him for a WR1/WR2 in a more stable situation, you should jump all over it.

Vincent Jackson - WR - San Diego Chargers
He was a super hyped "sleeper" heading into the season, Week 3 was his first solid fantasy performance. He's still, at best, the third option on his team. The Chargers are struggling mightily, Philips Rivers is looking flustered, and Jackson really has hands of stone. Now that he's cashed in a good game, hype him up as breaking out and see if you can steal yourself a WR2 or RB depth.

Players to Buy Low:

Drew Brees - QB - New Orleans Saints
Follwing his miserable Monday Night performance, Brees' value can't get any lower. It's the perfect time to steal him. Yes, the Saints could very well implode this season, but I believe that in the weak NFC the Saints stand a good chance of a solid rebound. There's too much talent on their offense to really be this bad.

Reggie Bush - RB - New Orleans Saints
Moan and groan about the fact that he only had 35 yards of offense in Week 3, say that his 2 TDs were pure luck and that he's too small to be a reliable goal line option. The fact is, without Deuce around, Bush becomes the top scoring option for the Saints. It will be a tough sell for smart owners, but see if you can steal him away.

LaDainian Tomlinson - RB - San Diego Chargers
Talk up his low yardage totals and the fact that the #1 overall fantasy pick "only" has 3 TDs. You'll have to give up one of your horses, but for LT, this is about as low as his value will get. He's faced some brutal defenses thus far. Things change in Week 4 when he goes against KC, so this is your last best chance to get him.

Larry Johnson - RB - Kansas City Chiefs
Johnson has also faced some brutal rush defenses. When Week6 rolls around, that schedule starts to get awfully soft. LJ owners are likely high frustrated with their first round pick at this point. See if you can take advantage of that.

Larry Fitzgerald - WR - Arizona Cardinals
He was here last week as well. He watched his buddy Anquan light up the Ravens in the 4th quarter. Fitz has way too much talent for his pedestrian output so far. Matt Leinart will be inspired as he fights to keep his job, Fitz should benefit.

Lee Evans - WR - Buffalo Bills
Normally, it'd be inadvisable to go get a WR who just lost his starting QB. Evans was recommended before and then hung a giant goose egg on the board in Week 3. Evans would be a risky pick, but he's got too much talent to ignore. If an owner drafted him to be a WR1, he's likely pulled out all of his hair by now and you could take him away for a WR3 and a small bag of Doritos.

Players to Avoid:
Marc Bulger QB - St. Louis Rams
Word is that he's playing through 2 broken ribs. The way he gets knocked around behind his porous O-Line, this is a situation that you want no part of.

Maurice Jones-Drew - RB - Jacksonville Jaguars
Yes, I recommended him as a buy low last week. Now, I honestly believe that he has "Bust" written all over him.

Reggie Brown - WR - Philadelphia Eagles
Supposedly finally fully healthy and ready to shine, during the Eagles' pass-a-thon he only managed a piddly 2 grabs for 23 yards. Firmly behind Kevin Curtis and possibly Jason Avant, Brown doesn't look like he will produce this season.

Donte Stallworth - WR - New England Patriots
Generally, all Patriots are good Patriots to have. Three weeks of being virtually invisible...4 receptions, 66 yards, buried behind Randy Moss and Wes Welker. Stallworth isn't exactly producing his patented big plays this season. How long until his patented injury?

Side Notes:

Steven Jackson is now likely to miss at least 2-3 games.
Brian Griese is likely to start for the Bears in Week 4, a decent fill-in if you're desperate due to his match up against the freshly lit Lions secondary.
Daunte Culpepper is likely to start, but faces a tough Miami pass defense and he has limited weapons to use to begin with.
Byron Leftwich remains the Falcons 3rd string QB, for now.
Calvin Johnson and Hines Ward will likely be starting in Week 4.
Ron Dayne is likely to be the starting RB for the Texans against the Falcons and is a decent bet to score. Ahman Green's knee is just swollen, but he'll likely be inactive.
Vernon Davis is likely out until at least Week 7 with a partially torn MCL, look for better, safer alternatives.
DeShawn Wynn will not become Green Bay's feature back and is safe to drop despite Week 3's rumor mill.
Anquan Boldin should be good to go in Week 4, despite a strained hip injury on Sunday.
If you haven't dropped Patrick Crayton and Devery Henderson yet, why?