Saturday, November 10, 2007

Play Action - Week 10


The last of the bye weeks has arrived, and it's a doozy for owners of Patriot players.
While owners of Tom Brady, Randy Moss and friends are whipped into a tizzy, let's take a closer look at the Week 10 NFL action from a Fantasy standpoint.


BYES: Buccaneers, Jets, Patriots, Texans

1:00pm EST Games

Vikings @ Packers

Viking Offense - Receiving: 166.2 (30), Rushing: 183.1 (1)
Packer Defense - Receiving: 237.5 (21), Rushing: 93.8 (8)

Packer Offense - Receiving: 300.8 (2), Rushing: 72.1 (32)
Viking Defense - Receiving: 291.2 (32), Rushing: 70.4 (2)

START: Adrian Peterson, Brett Favre, Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, James Jones, Packer Defense
CONSIDER: Donald Lee
BENCH: Tarvaris Jackson (check), Chester Taylor, Viking Defense, Ryan Grant

Purple Jesus set the world on fire last week against the Chargers. He remains the Vikings' only true offensive threat, so look for the Packers' solid rush D to key on him. Forget about ever starting any of the Viking pass game components.
Look for Brett Favre to be slinging it as usual against the truly awful Viking pass D. Favre, Driver, Jennings, Jones and possibly Donald Lee should all have solid days. Meanwhile, the Vikings are solid on rush D while the Packers are the worst in the business, so make sure that Ryan Grant is warming the pine for your team.

Broncos @ Chiefs
Bronco Offense - Receiving: 244 (12), Rushing: 114.9 (13)
Chief Defense - Receiving: 236.4 (20), Rushing: 104.9 (14)

Chief Offense - Receiving: 227.6 (15), Rushing: 79.5 (30)
Bronco Defense - Receiving: 207.5 (7), Rushing: 161.5 (32)

START: Travis Henry (check), Selvin Young (check Henry), Brandon Marshall, Tony Gonzalez
CONSIDER: Jay Cutler (check), Tony Scheffler, Priest Holmes
BENCH: Brandon Stokley, Bronco Defense, Damon Huard, Kolby Smith, Dwayne Bowe, Chief Defense

Remember when this used to be a marquee match up?
The Broncos are in shambles after getting shredded by the Lions in Week 9. Travis Henry is expected to be a game-time decision. It'd be tough to go with him after his poor showing against the Lions, but the Chiefs are a bad rush D. Honestly, it'd be more interesting if Henry were inactive and you could start Selvin Young. Cutler is expected to give it a go after having his leg banged up last week.
The Chiefs are expected to use a RBBC in place of the injured Larry Johnson. As long as you have decent alternatives, you should take a wait and see approach. It will be a challenge for Priest to come back after almost 2 years away and carry a heavy workload, and this is a far cry from the O-Line of his heyday. Coach Edwards has indicated that he will not hesitate to put Broadie Croyle in if Huard gets off to a poor start, which wouldn't be a surprise since Denver is still good against the pass. Gonzo has a history of thriving against the Broncos.

Bills @ Dolphins
Bill Offense - Receiving: 182.6 (29), Rushing: 109.8 (18)
Dolphin Defense - Receiving: 195.8 (5), Rushing: 160.5 (31)

Dolphin Offense - Receiving: 222.4 (17), Rushing: 116.5 (12)
Bill Defense - Receiving: 261.5 (28), Rushing: 115.4 (19)

START: Marshawn Lynch, Lee Evans
CONSIDER: J.P. Losman, Bill Defense
BENCH: Cleo Lemon, Jesse Chatman, Dolphin Defense

The Dolphins are horrible. Really, really horrible. Historically bad. That's all you need to know, don't start any of them.
The curiously explosive Bill Offense should keep on rolling along this week. Keep Lynch and Evans active and enjoy their big days. Zach Thomas is out again, so it should be easy sledding. You can even consider the Bill Defense if you're in a pinch. The Dolphins, as you may have read, suck.

Rams @ Saints - Dome
Ram Offense - Receiving: 226.4 (16), Rushing: 82.1 (29)
Saint Defense - Receiving: 257.2 (26), Rushing: 96.9 (10)

Saint Offense - Receiving: 271.9 (5), Rushing: 93.1 (24)
Ram Defense - Receiving: 216.5 (11), Rushing: 129.9 (25)

START: Marc Bulger,
Steven Jackson (check), Torry Holt, Drew Brees, Reggie Bush (check), Marques Colston
CONSIDER: David Patten
BENCH: Isaac Bruce, Eric Johnson

The Rams are going to be passing an awful lot in an attempt to keep up in this one. If Bulger can't put up numbers here, he can't put them up anywhere. He's banged up, but he needs to suck it up. Steven Jackson is expected to share carries this week, which cuts into his value. He also has to show that he can remain on the field for longer than one quarter.
Other than the Patriots, no team is hotter than the Saints right now. Look for Brees to shred the Rams, with Colston continuing his hot run, and for Reggie Bush to see plenty of looks if he is active, as he likely will be. Patten has also been putting up nice numbers lately, and not getting much hype for it.

Browns @ Steelers
Brown Offense - Receiving: 267.8 (7), Rushing: 110.9 (17)
Steeler Defense - Receiving: 183.1 (1), Rushing: 76 (4)

Steeler Offense - Receiving: 219.5 (19), Rushing: 150.5 (2)
Brown Defense - Receiving: 282 (31), Rushing: 135.1 (27)

START: Braylon Edwards, Ben Roethlisberger, Willie Parker, Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, Heath Miller, Steeler Defense
CONSIDER: Kellen Winslow
BENCH: Derek Anderson, Jamal Lewis, Joe Jurevicius, Najeh Davenport

The Browns' improbable run of offense hits a roadblock here. Jamal Lewis' fluky performance last week was an aberration, it's not going to happen again against the Steelers. Brylon Edwards should remain active, following the "never bench your studs" rule, but you should look beyond the Browns for your offense.
On the other hand, the Browns don't bother playing defense, so trot ALL of your normal Steelers out there. Roethlisberger should continue his hot performance from Week 9, although it's likely he'll lose a TD or 2 to Fast Willie. Keep the Steeler D active as well, as they should be able to contain the Browns.

Eagles @ Redskins
Eagle Offense - Receiving: 255.5 (10), Rushing: 113.2 (14)
Redskin Defense - Receiving: 228.5 (17), Rushing: 95 (9)

Redskin Offsense - Receiving: 190 (27), Rushing: 128.9 (9)
Eagle Defense - Receiving: 244 (23), Rushing: 92.9 (7)

START: Brian Westbrook, Eagle Defense, Chris Cooley, Redskin Defense
CONSIDER: Donovan McNabb, Kevin Curtis, Clinton Portis, Santana Moss (check)
BENCH: Reggie Brown, L.J. Smith, Jason Campbell, Antwaan Randle El

The Eagles move down the field fairly well, but getting into the end zone has become a monumental struggle for them. They're facing a tough defense this week, so don't expect much to change. This should be a low-scoring game, so get the Eagle D out there.
The Redskin offense really isn't any better than the Eagles. The Eagles are good against the run, so look for limited production from Portis. Cooley remains their most likely TD target, so leave him active. Santana Moss is very questionable at this time, hopefully you have better options, if not keep a close eye on him before kickoff. The Eagles will struggle to score, again, so keep the Skin D active as well.

Falcons @ Panthers
Falcon Offense - Receiving: 214.8 (20), Rushing: 98.9 (20)
Panther Defense - Receiving: 217.1 (12), Rushing: 116.4 (20)

Panther Offense - Receiving: 191.4 (26), Rushing: 122.6 (11)
Falcon Defense - Receiving: 218.1 (13), Rushing: 125.1 (23)

START: Roddy White, Falcon Defense
CONSIDER: Warrick Dunn, DeShaun Foster, Steve Smith, Panther Defense
BENCH: Joey Harrington, Jerious Norwood (check), Alge Crumpler, Vinny Testaverde (check), Matt Moore (check Testaverde), DeAngelo Williams, Jeff King

Can the Falcons really win 2 in a row? I believe that they will. Roddy White has been consistent, so leave him active. If Matt Moore starts for the Panthers, then the Falcon D is a must-start.
Steve Smith continues to ponder what he did to deserve all this punishment. His value takes a hit if Testaverde is out and Moore starts. Moore couldn't possibly be worse than David Carr, but that's not exactly a ringing endorsement for the Panther offense. The Falcons aren't going to light up the scoreboard either, and Harrington is always a decent bet for some turnovers, so give the Panther D some strong consideration.

Jaguars @ Titans
Jaguar Offense - Receiving: 206.4 (24), Rushing: 139 (5)
Titan Defense - Receiving: 219.1 (15), Rushing: 66 (1)

Titan Offense - Receiving: 160.2 (31), Rushing: 149.5 (3)
Jaguar Defense - Receiving: 261.4 (27), Rushing: 107.8 (16)

START: Jaguar Defense, LenDale White, Titan Defense
CONSIDER: Maurice Jones-Drew
BENCH: David Garrard (check), Quinn Gray (check Garrard), Fred Taylor, Vince Young, Roydell Williams

David Garrard will likely be active, but it may only be to back up Quinn Gray. The Jags should find some very tough sledding against a solid Titan D. MJD is always a threat to score, but he goes up against the NFL's top-ranked rush defense. If you have better options, use them. The Titans are certainly no offensive juggernaut, so keep the Jags D active.
The Titans will keep on riding the LenWhale this week, so make sure you've got him starting. Also keep the Titan D active, as they should give the Jags fits. Everybody else in this game...not very interesting. Look for a defensive battle.


4:00pm EST Games

Bengals @ Ravens

Bengal Offense - Receiving: 274.1 (4), Rushing: 88.4 (28)
Raven Defense - Receiving: 209.9 (8), Rushing: 74.1 (3)

Raven Offense - Receiving: 208.5 (22), Rushing: 104.2 (19)
Bengal Defense - Receiving: 262.2 (29), Rushing: 143.6 (28)

START: Carson Palmer, Chad Johnson (check), T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Willis McGahee, Derrick Mason, Todd Heap (check)
CONSIDER: Chris Henry, Raven Defense
BENCH: Rudi Johnson, Kenny Watson, Steve McNair

Two of the NFL's most disappointing teams meet. The Ravens will likely be down a couple of DBs, so the Bengals should be slinging it per usual. The returning Chris Henry is worth strong consideration, but it would be best to wait and see how he looks, if possible. Don't look for the Bengals ground game to suddenly come to life against the fierce Raven rush D. Chad Johnson looks likely to play.
The Bengals don't play defense, so McGahee should have a field day. Also look for Mason to haul in a TD, since the Bengals don't play pass defense either. Todd Heap has a favorable match up, assuming that he can remain on the field for more than 10 minutes in his likely return from injury.

Lions @ Cardinals - Dome
Lion Offense - Receiving: 268.5 (6), Rushing: 95.2 (21)
Cardinal Defense - Receiving: 211.4 (9), Rushing: 115.1 (18)

Cardinal Offense - Receiving: 232.8 (14), Rushing: 93.1 (24)
Lion Defense - Receiving: 278.2 (30), Rushing: 101.1 (12)

START: Jon Kitna, Kevin Jones, Roy Williams, Kurt Warner, Edgerrin James, Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin
CONSIDER: Calvin Johnson, Lion Defense
BENCH: Bryant Johnson

The Lion D cashed in another awesome performance in Week 9. They can't slow down the pass, but they continue a rock solid run in Fantasy, we all know that Kurt Warner loves the turnover. The Lions have become a much more balanced offense, which has taken fantasy value away from Kitna and the Lion WRs, while adding significant value to Kevin Jones. Look for a shoot out in this game. Points everywhere.
The Cardinal pass game should run wild like Hulkamania here. If there was ever a time to start Kurt Warner, this is it, at home against one of the league's worst pass defenses. Keep Edge active, as there should be plenty of offense to spread around in this one. Again, expect a shoot out.

Cowboys @ Giants
Cowboy Offense - Receiving: 288.5 (3), Rushing: 127.9 (10)
Giant Defense - Receiving: 219.4 (16), Rushing: 101 (11)

Giant Offense - Receiving: 203 (25), Rushing: 137.8 (6)
Cowboy Defense - Receiving: 230.5 (18), Rushing: 84.4 (5)

START: Tony Romo, Marion Barber, Terrell Owens, Jason Witten, Eli Manning, Brandon Jacobs, Plaxico Burress, Jeremy Shockey
CONSIDER: Patrick Crayton
BENCH: Julius Jones, Cowboy Defense, Amani Toomer, Giant Defense

The Official Marquee Match Up of Week 10.
While I expect both teams to try to play ball control in this one with their power backs, I still expect it to result in a fairly high scoring game. Look for a few deep balls to be thrown TO's way. Witten is always a threat in the red zone. The Giants are still shaky against the pass, so give Crayton some consideration if you don't have more reliable options.
The Giants will continue to feed Jacobs the ball. The Cowboys are solid against the run but struggle against the pass, so look for Plax to burn them deep at least once.
Expect enough points to be scored in this one to not bother using either defense.

Bears @ Raiders
Bear Offense - Receiving: 238.9 (13), Rushing: 78.9 (31)
Raider Defense - Receiving: 190 (4), Rushing: 152.5 (30)

Raider Offense - Receiving: 183.6 (28), Rushing: 140 (4)
Bear Defense - Receiving: 245.6 (24), Rushing: 130.9 (26)

START: Cedric Benson, Bear Defense, Justin Fargas
CONSIDER:
Ronald Curry
BENCH: Brian Griese, Bernard Berrian, Muhsin Muhammad, Desmond Clark, Greg Olsen, Josh McCown, LaMont Jordan, Jerry Porter

If Cedric Benson can't perform here, he can't perform anywhere. You'll never see him on "Start" or "Consider" again if he doesn't put up points in this game. The Raiders are solid against the pass, so leave the Bear passing game on your bench.
Justin Fargas has looked great the past couple weeks. He's not all that special, but neither is the Bear defense, so get him active. LaMont Jordan shouldn't see much action.
Everybody else in this game...no thanks.

Sunday Night Football

Colts @ Chargers

Colt Offense - Receiving: 258.4 (9), Rushing: 137.6 (7)
Charger Defense - Receiving: 243.6 (22), Rushing: 125 (22)

Charger Offense - Receiving: 207 (23), Rushing: 113.2 (14)
Colt Defense - Receiving: 184.5 (2), Rushing: 107.1 (15)

START: Peyton Manning, Joseph Addai, Reggie Wayne, LaDanian Tomlinson, Antonio Gates
CONSIDER: Chris Chambers
BENCH: Marvin Harrison (check), Dallas Clark (check), Colt Defense, Philip Rivers, Vincent Jackson, Charger Defense

Owners of Joseph Addai have to be salivating after seeing what Adrian Peterson did to the Chargers last week. Hand them a napkin, because while Addai should have a decent game, he won't sniff those kind of numbers. Despite evidence to the contrary in Week 9, the Chargers are decent against the run and struggle against the pass, so look for Manning to exploit them there. Harrison is too banged up to rely on, Dallas Clark is also nicked up, and has fallen off a cliff the past several weeks anyway.
Norv Turner continues to show the world why he has absolutely no business as an NFL head coach. Riding the extremely mediocre Philip Rivers instead of the LT express is inexcusable. Frustrated LT owners should expect better numbers here in prime time. Expect Gates to have a decent, but not spectacular bounce back game as well.

Monday Night Football

49ers @ Seahawks

49er Offense - Receiving: 157.9 (32), Rushing: 91.5 (26)
Seahawk Defense - Receiving: 252.5 (25), Rushing: 102 (13)

Seahawk Offense - Receiving: 253.6 (11), Rushing: 94.1 (23)
49er Defense - Receiving: 218.1 (13), Rushing: 127.2 (24)

START: Vernon Davis, Matt Hasselbeck, Bobby Engram, D.J. Hackett, Seahawk Defense
CONSIDER: Deion Branch (check)
BENCH: Alex Smith, Frank Gore (check), Michael Robinson (check Gore), Darrell Jackson, Shaun Alexander (check), Maurice Morris (check Alexander)

The 49ers Offense is absolutely horrid. Frank Gore will be limited if he's even active, play it safe and bench him for someone playing on Sunday. Vernon Davis is their main threat to score. Hopefully you're not counting on any 49ers to rescue your week on Monday Night.
The Seahawks should have too much trouble putting some points on the board. Shaun Alexander is in the same boat as Gore, and should also be benched for a safer option on Sunday. Deion Branch is also questionable, so use the same logic. Look for D.J. Hackett to be more involved in his second game back, and for him to be in better condition. Trot the Seahawk Defense out there, the 49er offense, as you may have noticed above, is absolutely horrid.

Thank you for reading, we'd appreciate any and all comments on the blog.
Check back Sunday for the Major Inactives.

No comments: