Friday, December 14, 2007

Play Action - Week 15



I apologize for missing the Thursday game.

First, let's all give Milton J. a thunderous standing ovation for tearing up his Beating The House column last week.
Also, allow me to point out that Milton PM'ed me before the Broncos/Texans game to inform me that he was taking the Texans. He's on fire.

The analysis this week will be fairly quick. It is likely the semifinals for your Fantasy Playoffs this week. Let's take a gander at who to get active in order to dominate your opponent. I am leaving out the weather links this week, because I'm in a serious time crunch, so be sure to keep an eye on the Sunday morning conditions as weather does play a major factor this time of year.

Saturday Night Football


Bengals @ 49ers

START:
Carson Palmer, Chad Johnson, T.J. Housmandzadeh, Frank Gore
CONSIDER: Rudi Johnson, Bengal Defense
BENCH: Kenny Watson, Chris Henry, Shaun Hill, Darrell Jackson, Arnaz Battle (check), Vernon Davis

Marvin Lewis is likely winding down his tenure in Cincy. Chemistry is a big question for the Bumbles, and you never know which team will show up week-to-week. This game should be a blowout, and hopefully it will be for those of you relying on Bengals. The Bengal D is worthy of consideration if you're in a pinch. The 49ers offense is horrible...and now Shaun Hill is their starting QB.
It's very hard to recommend using Frank Gore. The guy has been an undisputed disaster this season. But still, the Bengals don't play defense. Bump up Arnaz Battle if he is active AND if he is going to start. If he sees limited action, he should be on your bench. The rest of the Niners...well, they suck.

Sunday - 1:00pm EST

Jets @ Patriots

START:
Tom Brady, Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Patriot Defense
CONSIDER: Thomas Jones
BENCH: Kellen Clemens, Laveranues Coles, Jerricho Cotchery, Donte Stallworth, Jabar Gaffney, Laurence Maroney, Ben Watson

The Patriots have been scorched on the ground lately. But still, you only want to start Thomas Jones if you really don't have any better options, the guy doesn't score TDs. The rest of the Jets...no way.
There's no reason this game shouldn't end up 80-0. You want to bench Stallworth and Gaffney, since nobody really knows which one will see more action, and you can't afford gambles at this time of the season. Despite the Jets being the 30th ranked rush defense, bench Maroney as well, the guy has shown that he can't be relied on. Unleash the rest of the Patriots, this game should be a points bonanza.

Titans @ Chiefs

START:
LenDale White, Titan Defense, Tony Gonzalez
CONSIDER: Nope
BENCH: Vince Young, Roydell Williams, Brodie Croyle, Kolby Smith, Dwayne Bowe

Wake me when it's over.
The LenWhale finally made a splash again in Week 14. Keep him out there again this week. Also start the Titan D against a very lackluster Chief O and hope they can contain Gonzo.
Gonzo is the only reliable Chief option.

Seahawks @ Panthers

START:
Matt Hasselbeck, Deion Branch, Bobby Engram, Seahawk Defense
CONSIDER: Nate Burleson
BENCH: Shaun Alexander, Maurice Morris, Vinny Testaverde (check), Matt Moore, DeShaun Foster, Steve Smith

There's no benching the usual suspects from the Seahawk passing game, they love to sling it. The ground game, however, is a full blown RBBC, killing the values of all parties. Nate Burleson seems to find the end zone reliably enough, so if you're in a crunch for a WR3, you could certainly do a whole lot worse. The Panthers are awful, get the Seahawk D out there.
It doesn't matter who starts at QB for the Panthers, you don't want to be counting on any of them to get you to your league championship.

Jaguars @ Steelers

START: Ben Roethlisberger (check), Willie Parker, Hines Ward
CONSIDER: Fred Taylor, Steeler Defense
BENCH: David Garrard, Maurice Jones-Drew, Reggie Williams, Santonio Holmes (check), Heath Miller

Likely the best game of the week.
Fred Taylor has been on fire lately, but he's facing the Steelers here. If you have better options, you've got to go with them. If not, it's not time to panic, get him out there and hope for the best. The rest of the Jags should be benched in this tough battle.
The Jags aren't good against the pass, so keep Benny Roeth and Smiling Hines active. Santonio Holmes is too banged up to be counted on and Heath Miller has been invisible for a month.

Bills @ Browns

START: Marshawn Lynch, Lee Evans, Derek Anderson, Jamal Lewis, Braylon Edwards, Kellen Winslow
CONSIDER: Nope
BENCH: Trent Edwards, Fred Jackson, Joe Jurevicius

Lee Evans always carries boom or bust risk, but the Brown pass D is terrible, so you've got to roll the dice here. Lynch looked strong in his return in Week 14, and there's no reason to believe he can't keep it up.
Speaking of terrible defenses, how 'bout them Bills? All of the major players on the Browns should be in for big days.

Packers @ Rams - Dome

START: Brett Favre, Ryan Grant, Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, Donald Lee, Steven Jackson, Torry Holt
CONSIDER: Packer Defense, Marc Bulger (check)
BENCH: James Jones, Isaac Bruce, Randy McMichael

Ryan Grant is Superman in green & yellow, there is no hotter player in the league right now. Still, Favre loves to get out there and sling it, and he should do so effectively against the Lambs.
Marc Bulger should be good to go, which is great news for Torry Holt owners. S-Jax should obviously always be active.

Falcons @ Buccaneers

START:
Roddy White, Earnest Graham, Joey Galloway
CONSIDER: Alex Smith
BENCH: Chris Redman, Warrick Dunn, Jerious Norwood, Alge Crumpler, Jeff Garcia (check), Ike Hilliard

The post-Petrino Era begins in Atlanta...way to be a stand-up guy, Bob-O. Roddy White is too good to bench, but he faces an awfully tough test here. The rest of the Falcons aren't even worth a second thought.
The Falcons may give up completely after Petrino left, so Earnest Graham and Galloway make very nice options. Jeff Garcia is expected to start, but he's old and brittle, so that's too much risk for your team. Alex Smith has become a quietly consistent, but far from spectacular, option.

Cardinals @ Saints - Dome

START: Kurt Warner, Larry Fitzgerald (check), Drew Brees, Marques Colston
CONSIDER: Anquan Boldin (check), Bryant Johnson (check Boldin), Aaron Stecker
BENCH: Edgerrin James, David Patten

Despite the broken toe, Boldin deserves serious consideration if he plays. Otherwise, Bryant Johnson deserves serious consideration. By now, I'm sure you're well aware of WR2's shredding the Saints. Larry Fitzgerald is also a game-time decision. Assuming that either of those guys play, Kurt Warner makes a very nice option, despite his love of the INT. Edge isn't a reliable option unless you're in total desperation.
There shouldn't be any shortage of passing in this game, expect Drew Brees to flourish as well. Colston has yet to catch a TD at home, maybe he'll get lucky this week. The Cards are decent against the rush, so only start Stecker if you're in a big pinch. David Patten shows up huge at times, but is too inconsistent for this time of season.

Ravens @ Dolphins

START:
Willis McGahee, Raven Defense
CONSIDER: Derrick Mason
BENCH: Kyle Boller, Mark Clayton, Todd Heap (out), Cleo Lemon, Jesse Chatman, Marty Booker

Offense? What offense?
Look for a whole lot of Willis McGahee...a WHOLE lot. Derrick Mason continues to get the ball a lot, so he's an option if you're in a crunch. They've been a huge disappointment, but why wouldn't you start the Raven defense here?
The Dolphins...well, they should achieve perfection this season. That is all.

4:00pm EST Games

Colts @ Raiders

START:
Peyton Manning, Joseph Addai, Reggie Wayne, Colt Defense
CONSIDER: Dallas Clark, Justin Fargas
BENCH: All Raiders not named Fargas

The Raider rush defense is horrible, Joesph Addai should be in for a field day. He should greatly reduce Payton Manning's numbers, but you can't bench Manning, despite the solid Raider pass D. Obviously, this could also be a negative for Wayne, who is also too studly for the pine.
The Raiders only hope to keep the game even remotely close is to feed Fargas the rock. The drawback is that the Raiders will likely be forced to air it out by halftime. If you need to start Fargas, just pray that he puts up numbers before then.

Eagles @ Cowboys

START:
Brian Westbrook, Tony Romo, Marion Barber, Terrell Owens, Jason Witten
CONSIDER: Donovan McNabb, Patrick Crayton, Cowboy Defense
BENCH: Kevin Curtis, Reggie Brown, Julius Jones

Brian Westbrook is a beast, you're obviously starting him. The Cowboy pass D is pretty bad, so D-Mac is a decent option. He had a decent games against them earlier this season, although he also threw 2 INTs.
There's no reason to sit you're usual Cowboy options. Jason Witten is the hottest TE in the league right now. The Eagles are always a threat to stink up the place, so the Cowboy D is a plausible option.

Lions @ Chargers

START:
LaDainian Tomlinson, Antonio Gates (check), Charger Defense
CONSIDER: Jon Kitna, Kevin Jones, Calvin Johnson, Chris Chambers
BENCH: Shaun McDonald, Mike Furrey, Philip Rivers, Vincent Jackson

The Lions are a terrible team on the road. You don't really want to start any of them, especially given that you never know if they're going to pound the ball, or pass exclusively. Avoid the headache here and try to avoid them all.
LT should be in store for a very big game, usually when that happens a player will disappoint, but hope that he doesn't. Gates is worth waiting for as long as you have a suitable alternative at TE that plays late. If Gates can't go, then Chris Chambers gets a nice bump in his value and should be strong starter material.

Sunday Night Football

Redskins @ Giants

START:
Chris Cooley, Brandon Jacobs, Plaxico Burress, Giant Defense
CONSIDER: Clinton Portis
BENCH: Todd Collins, Santana Moss, Antwaan Randle El, Redskin Defense, Eli Manning, Jeremy Shockey

The Redskins are in serious trouble with Todd Collins leading the team. Look for the Giants to key on shutting down Portis. Collins should be looking Cooley's way a lot, since he is the 'Skins' only reliable option.
Brandon Jacobs has proclaimed that he will be having "the game of his life" this week. Probably not, but he's still a solid option. Plax finally turned in a solid performance again in Week 14. Shockey has been a big disappointment, he's all name at this point. Leave Eli on the bench, since you don't want to have him active in the playoffs and cashing in one of his famous meltdowns, just play it safe.

Monday Night Football

Bears @ Vikings
- Dome

START: Bernard Berrian, Adrian Peterson (Min)
CONSIDER: Desmond Clark, Viking Defense
BENCH: Kyle Orton, Adrian Peterson (Chi), Muhsin Muhammad, Greg Olsen, Bear Defense, Tarvaris Jackson

A collision of Adrian Petersons.
A WR is always a reasonable option against the Viking pass D, and with Berrian's big play ability, he's as good of a choice as any. Chicago Adrian showed in Week 14 that he's a pretender, not a contender.
Purple Jesus was a monumental disappointment in Week 14. Still, he's been too hot to bench, and he torched the Bears earlier this season. Don't expect a repeat, but a nice game certainly isn't out of the question.

Check back on Sunday for the Game Day Inactives.

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