Early Fantasy Baseball Player Rankings 2008- First Base

Early First Base Rankings 2008
Written By Larry Yocum

Hi, my name is Larry Yocum and I am new to Fantola. I will be posting on here regularly and will primarily work on basketball and baseball articles although I love discussing all sports. I specialize in the realm of fantasy sports and that will be my focus. I am going to start with positional rankings in baseball as I am in the middle of early drafts for the upcoming season and really nobody else has theirs out yet, so this should be helpful for the rabid baseball fanatic. Rather than start with catchers, as they are less glamorous, I would like to start with a power position at first base. Look for Catchers on Thursday.

These rankings are based on a standard 1-year mixed 12-team rotisserie league. Because it is a rotisserie league ranking system, you may find stolen bases and average more heavily rewarded than you would expect. They are more difficult to fill in a roto league than the sexier stats like home runs and RBI’s. For example, in a 12-team roto league, you should target 125-130 SB if you want a decent score in that category. You will need significantly more HR’s, around 190-200, to put up a decent roto score. This is significantly different from my h2h strategy where I will sometimes just punt on stolen bases and stack runs, HR’s and RBI to ensure victory each week in those categories. In roto, you can’t do that and expect to win a competitive league.

I am basing these rankings on a number of things such as past returns, age, expected returns, and gut feelings about players. I am going to go 15 deep at each position and give my reasoning for placement there. Please feel free to disagree, praise, refute or otherwise add to my list. Thank you very much.

Please note: I did not include players that had less than 10 games started at a position so David Ortiz is not ranked and would have been 4th on this list. He played 7 games there, so check your eligibility in your leagues. Garrett Atkins is another notable player that may be eligible in leagues with 10 games in (no starts).

Positional Rankings for 1st Baseman

1. Albert Pujols (age on opening day 28)
2007 stats: .327 avg, 99 Runs, 32 HR, 103 RBI, 2 SB
Reasoning Pujols has been a rock at the position for a number of years now. His homeruns dipped in 2007, but he has just been too good for too many years now and is only now entering his prime power ages of 27-32. I also can’t give up the 40 points of average that drafting Prince or Howard would include. However, if Prince and Howard mash 45-50 HR’s again and Albert doesn’t improve on his total of 32 from last year, expect an adjustment in the rankings next year. It would also be nice if he swipped 10-15 bags again. His lineup and protection is a concern, but can it really be any worse than last season?

2. Prince Fielder (age on opening day 23)
2007 stats: .288 avg. 109 runs, 50 HR, 119 RBI, 2 SB
50 Homeruns as a 23 year old? Just flat ridiculous. I think you will get about the same returns with Howard or Prince but the fact that Prince is much younger is scary, as he could just get much better. The jump from 2006 to 2007 may have been a sign of amazing things to come.

3. Ryan Howard (28)
2007 stats: .268 avg., 94 runs, 47 HR, 136 RBI, 1 SB
Which Ryan Howard is going to show up? 2006’s MVP or the very solid 2007 version that hit 45 points lower on the batting average and 11 less HR’s? My best guess would be something in between. The big fella battled leg injuries last season and that could have explained some of the drop. However, he also needs to cut down on the K’s, or he won’t approach that .313 average ever again.

4. Mark Teixiera (27)
2007 stats: .306 average, 86 runs, 30 HR’s, 105 RBI, 0 SB
Local college boy returns home and does well. I really like Teixiera in Atlanta for a full season. The Georgia Tech alum adjusted nicely after that trade and showed that he can still play in front of the home crowd and play well.

5. Lance Berkman (32)
2007 stats: .278 average, 95 runs, 34 HR’s, 102 RBI, 7 SB
Berkman will be the anchor in that Houston lineup once again this year. His numbers fell off by his standards in 2007 and he needed a big second half to return them to respectable levels. Was it a sign of decline or just a down year? A revamped lineup could rejuvenate the slugger.

6. Travis Hafner (30)
2007 stats: .266 average, 80 runs, 24 HR’s, 100 RBI, 1 SB
Pronk had a terrible 2007 and looked lost at the plate at times. He hit over .300 the two previous seasons, so I don't know what happened. Maybe there was a health issue that wasn't disclosed, you never know. Hopefully the slugger bounces back and returns to form in 2008. Check league eligibility as Hafner had 11 games at first in 2007.

7. Justin Morneau (26)
2007 stats: .271 average, 84 runs, 31 HR’s, 111 RBI, 1 SB
Morneau is the Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde of first baseman. Which one will show up? First half? Second Half? All year? It will drive you crazy. Guy has mass power though.

8. Carlos Pena (29)
2007 stats: .282 average, 99 runs, 46 HR’s, 121 RBI, 1 SB
46 Homeruns is 46 homeruns and can’t be ignored, but why do I get that Morgan Ensberg feeling from this guy? I think I am going to have a tough time bringing myself to draft him. I’ll rank him here for now, but buyer beware. I’m not real fond of guys finally “breaking out” when they are 29 years old.

9. Victor Martinez (29)
2007 stats: .301 average, 78 runs, 25 HR’s, 114 RBI, 0 SB
Now here is the weird part. I would clearly pick V-mart about 3-4 rounds ahead of other first basemen on this list because of the fact that he is catcher eligible and will be more valuable there. But who the heck drafts V-mart to play 1st? Eventually, this may be his permanent home though and this is where he would have been placed with 30 games played there in 2007.

10. Derrek Lee (32)
2007 stats: .317 average, 91 runs, 22 HR’s, 82 RBI, 6 SB
Where did the power go last year? He should rebound. That average and 42 doubles tells me that he is still making good contact.

11. Carlos Guillen (32)
2007 stats: .296 average, 86 runs, 21 HR’s, 102 RBI, 13 SB
Guillen had previously been an injury risk, but has now put in 2 solid seasons in a row. The move to first should help him out as will that strong Detroit lineup as will the fact that he can just flat hit. He will be ranked higher as a SS, but is a very safe pick as a first baseman as well. 10-15 SB’s is very nice to get from a first baseman as well.

12. Adrian Gonzalez (25)
2007 stats: .282 average, 101 runs, 30 HR’s, 101 RBI, 0SB
When this guy is hot, he is scalding hot, but when he is cold, he is ice cold. I don't know whether to expect him to hit .250 or .300. I love his swing though. It reminds me of Rafeal Palmeiro's and I really can't explain why this guy goes through cold spells. Maybe he will figure it out and get to that .300 plateau and stay there.

13. Paul Konerko (32)
2007 stats: .256 average, 70 runs, 31 HR’s, 90 RBI, 0 SB
Was the .256 a sign of decline or just an off year? He had 3 straight years of 35+ HR’s and hit .313 in 2006, but fell of quite a bit last year. He is a career .281 hitter and should rebound.

14. James Loney (23)
2007 stats: .331 average, 41 runs, 16 HR’s, 67 RBI, 0 SB
Loney should end up higher on this list in the future. I will tell you what makes me nervous right now is that his previous high for HR’s in a season is 11 in 504 AB’s in 2005. Those numbers look very nice and he is a guy that hits for a high average, but I have a hard time seeing the jump that others are expecting from 16 HR’s to 30 right away.

15. Todd Helton (34)
2007 stats: .320 average, 86 runs, 17 HR’s, 91 RBI, 0SB
The power is gone, but the great average remains. He finished second in the NL in OBP at .434. That Colorado lineup will provide many opportunities for runs and RBI’s.

Barely missed the cut: Alex Gordon, Joey Votto, Carlos Delgado (contract year or just done?), Kevin Youkillis, Nick Swisher