Friday, October 5, 2007

Play Action - Week 5

Yes, it is time for some Game-by-Game analysis once again. 2007 has rapidly turned into the Year of the Backup Running Back, so there are plenty of unfamiliar names below, and by now your waiver wire options should be extremely thin...perhaps Edgar Bennett or Bam Morris are available.

Click on the Game link to view the weather forecast. Players marked as (check) are injury concerns, so make certain that you check the game day inactives before finalizing your roster.

Teams are listed with their YPG (NFL Rank) in the given categories.
As always, these recommendations are based on 12-team leagues.

BYES:
Bengals, Eagles, Raiders, Vikings

1:00pm EST Games

Browns @ Patriots

Brown Offense - Receiving: 249.5 (9), Rushing: 114.8 (15)
Patriot Defense - Receiving: 179 (4), Rushing: 69.8 (3)

Patriot Offense - Receiving: 279.5 (5), Rushing: 157 (4)
Brown Defense - Receiving: 273.8 (29), Rushing: 160 (30)

START: Tom Brady, Laurence Maroney (check), Sammy Morris (check Maroney), Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Ben Watson, Patriot Defense
CONSIDER: Derek Anderson, Braylon Edwards, Donte Stallworth (check)
BENCH: Jamal Lewis, Joe Jurevicius, Kellen Winslow (check)

This game should be an absolute slaughter...we thought that about the Browns/Bengals in Week 2 as well, but let's be serious, now we're talking about the Patriots, a team that actually plays defense. The Browns, on the other hand, do not play defense. Unleash all of your Patriots, possibly even Donte Stallworth. Anderson and Edwards are only considerations since the Browns should be so far behind that they'll have no choice other than to throw. Even if Winslow plays, he'll likely be limited and could very well be pulled once the game is out of hand.

Jets @ Giants
Jet Offense - Receiving: 219.2 (20), Rushing: 82.5 (28)
Giant Defense - Receiving: 239.8 (17), Rushing: 105.2 (14)

Giant Offense - Receiving: 232.5 (15), Rushing: 99.2 (19)
Jet Defense - Receiving: 258.5 (27), Rushing: 112.5 (16)

START: Laveranues Coles, Jerricho Cotchery, Eli Manning, Brandon Jacbos, Plaxico Burress (check), Jeremy Shockey
CONSIDER: Thomas Jones, Giant Defense
BENCH: Chad Pennington, Derrick Ward, Amani Toomer

The Giants' defense is quite the enigma, apparently all it takes to motivate them is a coach in the locker room with an air horn. They have been lights out for the past 6 quarters. Expect them to pressure Pennington early and often. Still, Coles and Cotchery are too hot to bench. Thomas Jones is still struggling mightily with his calf injury and if you have a more consistent option, you should give them a long look. Look for Eli and Plax to exploit a weak Jet pass defense. Shockey has a strong chance to finally find the end zone this week. If he doesn't, it's time to consider playing match ups with your TEs. Jacobs is expected to carry a heavy load.

Jaguars @ Chiefs
Jaguar Offense - Receiving: 210 (21), Rushing: 124.7 (13)
Chief Defense - Receiving: 191.2 (7), Rushing: 118 (19)

Chief Offense - Receiving: 222 (19), Rushing: 79.5 (30)
Jaguar Defense - Receiving: 116.7 (3), Rushing: 137 (26)

START: Jaguar Defense, Larry Johnson
CONSIDER: Fred Taylor, Tony Gonzalez
BENCH: David Garrard, Maurice Jones-Drew, Reggie Williams, Marcedes Lewis, Damon Huard, Dwayne Bowe

Bench Dwayne Bowe, but he's smoking hot after these past 2 weeks?! Yes, against the stout Jags pass defense, he should ride the pine. Look for a low-scoring game here. If you haven't bought low on Larry Johnson, you've missed your opportunity. Look for him to piece together another nice game. Reggie Williams is putting up Matt Spaeth numbers, 2 TDs, not much to speak of in yardage...he's not reliable enough to start. MJD still bears keeping an eye on.

Falcons @ Titans
Falcon Offense - Receiving: 245.8 (11), Rushing: 89.8 (22)
Titan Defense - Receiving: 247 (22), Rushing: 63.3 (2)

Titan Offense - Receiving: 149.3 (30), Rushing: 173.7 (2)
Falcon Defense - Receiving: 229.2 (11), Rushing: 128.5 (23)

START: Vince Young, LenDale White
CONSIDER: Joey Harrington, Roddy White, Alge Crumpler, Falcon Defense, Titan Defense
BENCH: Warrick Dunn, Jerious Norwood, Michael Jenkins, Chris Brown, Roydell Williams, Brandon Jones, Bo Scaife

Another game with limited offensive fireworks. The Falcons have a good pass defense, the Titans have awful WRs, but Vince Young should mix in some nice runs. The Titans should also ride LenDale White hard, especially near the goal line. Yes, you should consider a hot performing Joey Harrington against a weak Titan pass defense. None of the Falcon WRs have proven to be reliable enough to start. Alge Crumpler is only an option if you really have no other choices, he's only had one decent performance all season.

Seahawks @ Steelers
Seahawk Offense - Receiving: 258 (7), Rushing: 104.5 (17)
Steeler Defense - Receiving: 201.5 (8), Rushing: 81.2 (8)

Steeler Offense - Receiving: 201.8 (24), Rushing: 168 (3)
Seahawk Defense - Receiving: 244.8 (20), Rushing: 103.8 (13)

START: Deion Branch, Willie Parker, Santonio Holmes, Heath Miller, Steeler Defense
CONSIDER: Matt Hasselbeck, Shaun Alexander, Bobby Engram, Ben Roethlisberger
BENCH: Nate Burleson, Hines Ward (injured)

You should actually bench Shaun Alexander if it's an option for you. The Steeler defense is going to look to assert itself after Week 4's embarrassing loss to the Cardinals. Look for Fast Willie to reappear this week after being a non-factor last week. Santonio Holmes could very well assert himself as the Steelers #1 WR in Ward's absence. It's going to be tough sledding for all Seahawks, their hot passing game deserves consideration, but don't expect anything extraordinary.

Panthers @ Saints - Dome
Panther Offense - Receiving: 209.2 (22), Rushing: 131.5 (11)
Saint Defense - Receiving: 239 (16), Rushing: 116.3 (18)

Saint Offense - Receiving: 225.7 (18), Rushing: 79.7 (29)
Panther Defense - Receiving: 232.8 (13), Rushing: 118.8 (21)

START: Drew Brees, Reggie Bush, Marques Colston, Steve Smith
CONSIDER: DeShaun Foster
BENCH: David Carr, Jake Delhomme (injured), Drew Carter, Jeff King, Panther Defense, Aaron Stecker, Pierre Thomas, Saints Defense

A collision of two of the NFL's (and fantasy's) most disappointing teams. Give the Saints a pass and start their big names. They're at home, coming off a bye, the Panthers can't buy an INT and the Saints should be looking to prove something. If Steve Smith can't produce against a relatively weak Saint pass defense, it's time to downgrade him seriously as long as David Carr is at the helm. Keep in mind that Carr got Andre Johnson 100+ receptions last season, though. Foster is a borderline RB2 for the week, given his match up against an average rush defense. Wait and see what happens with Stecker and Thomas, maybe they're roster-worthy, maybe not.

Cardinals @ Rams - Dome
Cardinal Offense - Receiving: 234.2 (14), Rushing: 110 (16)
Ram Defense - Receiving: 204.2 (9), Rushing: 157 (29)

Ram Offense - Receiving: 198.5 (25), Rushing: 83.8 (24)
Cardinal Defense - Receiving: 233 (14), Rushing: 95.5 (11)

START: Edgerrin James, Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin (check), Torry Holt
CONSIDER: Cardinal Defense, Gus Frerotte,, Drew Bennett (check Bruce)
BENCH: Matt Leinart, Kurt Warner,
Isaac Bruce (out), Bryant Johnson, Marc Bulger, Brian Leonard, Randy McMichael

Coach Whisenhunt continues to employ his curious QBBC, although Warner is clearly out-performing Leinart at this point; neither is a good choice as a fantasy starter currently. Edgerrin James has been the Edge of old so far this season, he's a must-start against the Rams feeble run D. Boldin is unlikely to play, but keep an eye on him just in case. Bruce is also extremely unlikely to play. If he is out, Drew Bennett should get more looks. Bulger has been benched for running The Worst Show on Turf. Frerotte was a capable QB for the Dolphins a couple seasons ago and may actually help Holt's value. The Cardinal D is a nice "sleeper" pick this week.

Lions @ Redskins
Lion Offense - Receiving: 343.9 (1), Rushing: 74.5 (31)
Redskin Defense - Receiving: 230.3 (12), Rushing: 92 (9)

Redskin Offense - Receiving: 207 (23), Rushing: 134.3 (10)
Lion Defense - Receiving: 293 (32), Rushing: 114.2 (17)

START: Jon Kitna, Roy Williams, Shaun McDonald, Clinton Portis
, Chris Cooley
CONSIDER: Kevin Jones, Calvin Johnson (check), Mike Furrey, Jason Campbell,
Santana Moss (check)
BENCH: Tatum Bell, Antwaan Randle El, Redskin Defense

It's been a long, long time since the Lions won in the nation's capital. Look for the Lions to pass, a lot, only the Packers have a more unbalanced offense. Kevin Jones will see an increased workload this week, and is a viable option if your other options are injured or unattractive. Lion WRs are must starts. Calvin Johnson will likely be limited if he plays this week, increasing the value of McDonald and Furrey. It's tough to recommend Campbell again, after his disappointing performance against the Giants a couple weeks ago, but the Lion pass D is horrible. It is extremely unlikely that Santana Moss plays, but if he does start, he makes a nice option although he likely wouldn't see a ton of action.

Dolphins @ Texans - Dome
Dolphin Offense - Receiving: 245.5 (12), Rushing: 95 (21)
Texan Defense - Receiving: 245 (21), Rushing: 80 (6)

Texan Offense - Receiving: 251.2 (8), Rushing: 88.8 (23)
Dolphin Defense - Receiving: 151.8 (2), Rushing: 199.2 (32)

START: Ronnie Brown, Chris Chambers, Ron Dayne
CONSIDER: Dolphin Defense, Texan Defense
BENCH: Trent Green, Marty Booker, Matt Schaub,
Ahman Green (out), Kevin Walter, Andre Davis, Owen Daniels

The Dolphins have an awesome pass defense, to go along with a terrible rush defense. The Texans WRs are all injured, so they should look to pound the rock with Ahman Green if he's active, or else with Ron Dayne. The Texans have a tough rush defense, but Ronnie Brown is absolutely on fire at the moment. Their pass defense is shaky, so Chambers makes a nice start.

4:00pm EST Games

Buccaneers @ Colts - Dome

Buc Offense - Receiving: 195 (28), Rushing: 137 (8)
Colt Defense - Receiving: 185.8 (5), Rushing: 127.5 (22)

Colt Offense - Receiving: 266.5 (6), Rushing: 137 (8)
Buc Defense - Receiving: 188.2 (6), Rushing: 118.2 (20)

START: Peyton Manning, Joseph Addai (check), Kenton Keith (check Addai), Marvin Harrison (check), Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Colt Defense
CONSIDER: Earnest Graham, Michael Pittman, Joey Galloway
BENCH: Jeff Garcia, Buc Defense, Anthony Gonzalez

The Colts are awfully banged up on offense suddenly. Addai and Harrison would be surprises if they started...Keith, Wayne and Clark would all receive a boost in their values if they didn't. Michael Pittman is a superior option to Earnest Graham. Graham's primary value will be as a goal-line back. Pittman would be a decent option if you have problems, the Colts still struggle to stop the run. The Colts are solid against the pass, so don't expect a whole lot out of Garcia and Galloway.

Ravens @ 49ers
Raven Offense - Receiving: 248.8 (10), Rushing: 116.2 (14)
49er Defense - Receiving: 227.8 (10), Rushing: 130 (25)

49er Offense - Receiving: 147.2 (31), Rushing: 95.2 (20)
Raven Defense - Receiving: 242.2 (19), Rushing: 71 (4)

START: Willis McGahee, Derrick Mason (check), Todd Heap (check), Raven Defense
CONSIDER: Mark Clayton (check Mason), 49er Defense
BENCH: Steve McNair (check), Demetrius Williams, Trent Dilfer, Frank Gore, Darrell Jackson

It's tough to bench Frank Gore, but the Ravens will be fully dedicated to stacking the box to shut him down. The Raven Defense should show you why you drafted them this week, finally. You should start any defense any time they're facing Trent Dilfer, especially when he's leading an offense as bad as the 49ers'. With the Raven O beat up, look for McGahee to carry a hefty workload and find the end zone twice. Mason and Heap are both very questionable. McNair is not an option to start...ever.

Chargers @ Broncos
Charger Offense - Receiving: 225.8 (17), Rushing: 83.8 (24)
Bronco Defense - Receiving: 129.2 (1), Rushing: 181 (31)

Bronco Offense - Receiving: 231.5 (16), Rushing 155.5 (5)
Charger Defense - Receiving: 269.2 (28), Rushing: 98 (12)

START: LaDainian Tomlinson, Antonio Gates, Jay Cutler,
Travis Henry (check), Selvin Young (check Henry), Brandon Marshall
CONSIDER: Javon Walker (check)
BENCH: Philip Rivers, Michael Turner, Vincent Jackson, Brandon Stokley

LT was on his way to an absolute monster day in Week 4, until complete coaching moron Norv Turner decided to turn the focus away from him in the second half. The Broncos have an awesome pass defense and an extremely weak rush defense. Perhaps Norv can remove his head from his ass long enough to keep LT chugging along this week. The Broncos should throw quite a bit against the Chargers relatively weak defense, although it would be a bit of a surprise if Walker started. Travis Henry may avoid suspension while his case is tied up in legal red tape, but he also has an injured ankle to deal with and may not start either way. If he does start, it could be the last you see of him for quite some time.

Sunday Night Football

Bears @ Packers
Bear Offense - Receiving: 196.5 (26), Rushing: 82.8 (27)
Packer Defense - Receiving: 248 (23), Rushing: 106.2 (15)

Packer Offense - Receiving: 301.2 (2), Rushing: 54.2 (32)
Bear Defense - Receiving: 253.2 (25), Rushing: 93.2 (10)

START: Brett Favre, Donald Driver, Greg Jennings (check), James Jones, Packer Defense
CONSIDER: Cedric Benson, Bernard Berrian, Desmond Clark
BENCH: Brian Griese, Muhsin Muhammad, Greg Olsen, DeShawn Wynn, Brandon Jackson (check), Vernand Morency, Donald Lee, Bubba Franks

The Bear pass defense is still banged up and left in shambles. They're going against a pass happy Packer offense that is playing at home in prime time to a national TV audience. What do you see happening here? Brett Favre is an absolute must start this week, so are his WRs. For the record, DeShawn Wynn is supposedly going to be the starting Packer RB, it doesn't matter, the Pack does not rush the ball. Griese should be better than he was last week, which isn't saying much. He will be throwing a lot in an effort to keep up with Green Bay, though, so Berrian and Clark should benefit. Lovie Smith claims that he will increase Benson's workload, which is good news, but take a wait and see stance against a decent rush defense here, unless you're out of RB options.


Monday Night Football

Cowboys @ Bills
Cowboy Offense - Receiving: 299.8 (3), Rushing: 152.5 (6)
Bill Defense - Receiving: 287 (31), Rushing: 148 (27)

Bill Offense - Receiving: 146.5 (32), Rushing: 102.5 (18)
Cowboy Defense - Receiving: 236 (15), Rushing: 80.5 (7)

START: Tony Romo, Marion Barber, Terrell Owens, Patrick Crayton, Jason Witten, Cowboy Defense
CONSIDER: Julius Jones, Marshawn Lynch, Lee Evans
BENCH: Trent Edwards

Whoever scheduled this game for Monday Night Football must have been hanging out with Travis Henry and getting into his stash. The Cowboys should light up the scoreboard against an awful Bill Defense. The Bills should struggle to score, as usual, except for possibly in garbage time. Look for them to start by feeding Lynch the ball to attempt to play time control. That shouldn't last long as the Cowboys should tap dance their way up and down the field. All of your Cowboys are options to score. Romo should continue to put up monster stats.

Track injuries here. Remember to check the Net for inactives on Sunday.

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