Saturday, October 20, 2007

Play Action - Week 7



Rapidly approaching the midway point of the NFL season, the pretenders and the contenders of both the NFL world as well as the Fantasy world are starting to separate.

Another excellent video blog from The King is below this, if you haven't done so already, you owe it to yourself to watch, and to take a look at the
Fantasy Chatter forums that are linked over to the right of this post.

Time to break down the Week 7 action, game-by-game.

Bye: Browns, Chargers, Packers, Panthers

1:00pm EST Games

49ers @ Giants

49er Offense - Receiving: 143 (32), Rushing: 86 (26)
Giant Defense - Receiving: 232.8 (19), Rushing: 96.5 (11)

Giant Offense - Receiving: 236.5 (12), Rushing: 128.8 (12)
49er Defense - Receiving: 225 (14), Rushing: 124.2 (22)

START: Eli Manning, Brandon Jacobs (check), Derrick Ward (check), Plaxico Burress, Jeremy Shockey, Giant Defense
CONSIDER: Frank Gore, Vernon Davis, Amani Toomer
BENCH: Trent Dilfer, Darrell Jackson, Arnaz Battle

Alex Smith may or may not be healthy enough to backup Dilfer this week, which means that he shouldn't be in your lineup. The 49er Offense will continue to struggle against what has turned into a good Giant Defense. With no threat of a vertical passing game, if you have better options than Frank Gore, they should be in your lineup. The Giants should continue to put up points in bunches. Jacobs is questionable, Wardshould be ready to go, start Ward only if Jacbos is unable to go. Burress' ankle continues to be a concern, but if he plays, which he will, then you play him. The Giants are also getting Shockey more looks.

Ravens @ Bills
Raven Offense - Receiving: 232.2 (16), Rushing: 107.2 (16)
Bill Defense - Receiving: 291.4 (31), Rushing: 133.6 (25)

Bill Offense - Receiving: 152.4 (31), Rushing: 98.2 (20)
Raven Defense - Receiving: 217.2 (9), Rushing: 66.7 (3)

START: Willis McGahee, Derrick Mason, Raven Defense
CONSIDER: Bill Defense
BENCH: Kyle Boller, Mark Clayton, Todd Heap (out), Trent Edwards, Marshawn Lynch, Lee Evans

This should be a very, very low-scoring game. The Raven D is a must start, and the Bill D is actually a decent option, despite the fact that they're awful. Boller is an upgrade over Steve McNair for the Raven offense, and Derrick Mason continues to lead the NFL in receptions, although he only has 1 TD. Thus the problem with the Ravens, they don't put points on the board. Look for the Ravens to feed McGahee the ball against his former team. The Bills very well may feed Lynch the ball as well, but he's facing a much tougher defense. Bench all of your Bills.

Patriots @ Dolphins
Patriot Offense - Receiving: 295.2 (3), Rushing: 141.7 (7)
Miami Defense - Receiving: 191 (4), Rushing: 168.5 (31)

Miami Offense - Receiving: 232.3 (15), Rushing: 104.5 (18)
Patriot Defense - Receiving: 200.3 (6), Rushing: 78.3 (5)

START: Tom Brady, Laurence Maroney (check), Randy Moss, Donte Stallworth (check), Wes Welker, Ben Watson (check), Patriot Defense, Ronnie Brown
CONSIDER: Kevin Faulk (check Maroney), Kyle Brady (check Watson)
BENCH: Sammy Morris (out), Cleo Lemon, Marty Booker, David Martin (check), Dolphin Defense

Some people are calling this a "trap game" for the Patriots...I just can't see it. The Dolphins no longer have Chris Chambers, which will further hinder their offense. Ronnie Brown is too hot to bench, so keep him in your lineup despite a tough match up, he'll put up decent numbers. There are conflicting reports everywhere pertaining to
Laurence Maroney's status, so keep a close eye on those game day inactives. If Maroney doesn't go, Kevin Faulk makes an adequate, but not special fill-in against a terrible rush defense. Start all of your other Patriots, just like every other week they play. Ben Watson is very questionable, start him if he goes. If he doesn't, Kyle Brady is worthy of consideration due to the fact that the Patriots love to pass and love to spread out the ball.

Cardinals @ Redskins
Cardinal Offense - Receiving: 234.5 (14), Rushing: 106.7 (17)
Redskin Defense - Receiving: 197 (5), Rushing: 80 (7)

Redskin Offense - Receiving: 217.2 (21), Rushing: 123 (14)
Cardinal Defense - Receiving: 233.3 (20), Rushing: 114.3 (16)

START: Edgerrin James, Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald, Santana Moss, Chris Cooley
CONSIDER: Jason Campbell, Clinton Portis, Antwaan Randle El, Redskin Defense
BENCH: Kurt Warner (check), Bryant Johnson, Ladell Betts

Kurt Warner is a game-time decision. If he can go, it is a big boost to the values of Boldin and Fitzgerald. Even if he starts, you don't want Warner in your lineup, due to the uncertainty of whether or not he'll make it through the game. If he doesn't start, Tim Rattay will...you don't want any of that, but there's still a possibility that Warner could run the 2-minute offense. Clinton Portis is playing hard, but he seems to be injured. It is with great hesitation that I recommend Santana Moss, but he has something to prove after last week's abysmal showing. You have to keep Edge in your lineup, due exclusively to the huge workload he handles. The Cards face a very solid Redskin D, though.

Falcons @ Saints - Dome
Falcon Offense - Receiving: 217.8 (20), Rushing: 93.5 (21)
Saint Defense - Receiving: 248.2 (24), Rushing: 105.8 (14)

Saint Offense - Receiving: 235 (13), Rushing: 89.8 (24)
Falcon Defense - Receiving: 229.5 (18), Rushing: 132.3 (24)

START: Drew Brees, Reggie Bush
CONSIDER: Jerious Norwood, Roddy White, Marques Colston, Saint Defense
BENCH: Byron Leftwich, Warrick Dunn, Michael Jenkins, Alge Crumpler (out), Devery Henderson, Lance Moore, David Patten, Eric Johnson

The Byron Leftwich Era begins. It may or may not be much of an upgrade for the Falcons. Have the Saints finally righted the ship? They looked good in Week 6. Reggie Bush WAS the Saints gameplan for Week 6, look for the same in Week 7. Colston is nursing an injured back, and has looked more like a 7th round WR from Hofstra this season than the breakout superstar from 2006. Still, he makes a nice, big red zone target. The Saints seem to have a WRBC for their WR2, minimizing all of their fantasy values. Jerious Norwood should get a chance to take over as the primary back this week, after Week 6's impressive showing.

Titans @ Texans - Dome
Titan Offense - Receiving: 170 (30), Rushing: 141.8 (6)
Texan Defense - Receiving: 226.2 (16), Rushing: 116.8 (19)

Texan Offense - Receiving: 273.3 (6), Rushing: 81.7 (29)
Titan Defense - Receiving: 226 (15), Rushing: 63.8 (1)

START: LenDale White, Titan Defense, Kevin Walter, Owen Daniels
CONSIDER: Vince Young (check), Matt Schaub
BENCH: Kerry Collins (check Young), Roydell Williams, Bo Scaife, Andre Johnson (out), Ahman Green, Andre Davis

LenDale White makes a decent start exclusively due to his heft workload, since Chris Brown will likely be inactive. Even if Vince Young starts, he will likely be very limited when it comes to running the ball. If Young can't go, Kerry Collins will start...you wouldn't want him anywhere near your starting lineup. Owens Daniels continues to put up respectable numbers, especially given the absence of Andre Johnson. Ahman Green faces another very difficult match up. Kevin Walter is highly unlikely to approach Week 6's monster performance, but he's still a good option.

Buccaneers @ Lions - Dome
Buc Offense - Receiving: 203.2 (25), Rushing: 99.2 (19)
Lion Defense - Receiving: 284 (30), Rushing: 115 (17)

Lion Offense - Receiving: 296.2 (2), Rushing: 73.2 (31)
Buc Defense - Receiving: 208.5 (7), Rushing: 119.3 (21)

START: Jeff Garcia, Joey Galloway, Jon Kitna, Kevin Jones, Roy Williams, Calvin Johnson
CONSIDER: Earnest Graham, Ike Hilliard
BENCH: Michael Bennett, Alex Smith (check), Tatum Bell, Mike Furrey, Shaun McDonald

The Bucs' solid pass defense meets the Lions' relentless passing attack. The Lions can't defend the pass, so Jeff Garcia makes a nice option, along with Galloway's constant threat to break one deep. The Lions have struggled mightily against #2 WRs, so Ike Hilliard makes a rare appearance as a legitimate option. Michael Bennett isn't really ready to roll, so Earnest Graham should be the feature back, possibly for the last time outside of a true RBBC. Kevin Jones takes over as the Lions' feature back and makes a nice option, especially given his receiving ability. Megatron is finally 100% healthy, so get him back in your lineup along with Williams and Kitna. The Lion WRs beyong them should be benched, given Tampa's solid pass D.

4:00pm EST Games

Chiefs @ Raiders

Chief Offense - Receiving: 238.5 (11), Rushing: 74.8 (30)
Raider Defense - Receiving: 224 (11), Rushing: 144.8 (28)

Raider Offense - Receiving: 183.2 (29), Rushing: 164 (3)
Chief Defense - Receiving: 217.2 (9), Rushing: 117.7 (20)

START: Larry Johnson, Dwayne Bowe, Tony Gonzalez, LaMont Jordan (check), Ronald Curry
CONSIDER: Damon Huard, Chief Defense
BENCH: Daunte Culpepper, Dominic Rhodes, Justin Fargas, Jerry Porter

Is there a more surprising first place team than the Chiefs? Their offense actually looks fairly solid. Larry Johnson should see tons of touches again this week, and pile up yardage. All of the Chiefs worth owning are decent options this week, including their defense, the Raiders are just plain bad. LaMont Jordan should be good to go, but check to make sure. When the Raiders do need to pass, they will look Ronald Curry's way. The rest of your Raiders should be benched.

Jets @ Bengals
Jet Offense - Receiving: 205.7 (24), Rushing: 90.5 (23)
Bengal Defense - Receiving: 258.6 (28), Rushing: 145.8 (29)

Bengal Offense - Receiving: 298.2 (1), Rushing: 82.2 (28)
Jet Defense - Receiving: 249.7 (25), Rushing: 131.5 (23)

START: Thomas Jones, Laveranues Coles (check), Jerricho Cotchery, Carson Palmer, Kenny Watson, Chad Johnson, T.J. Houshmandzadeh
CONSIDER: Chad Pennington
BENCH: Chris Baker (check), Rudi Johnson (check)

Two teams that can't do anything right. There should be plenty of scoring in this game, with 2 very weak defenses on the field. Thomas Jones should continue to build upon the momentum he worked up in Week 6. Chad Pennington is playing for his job, and if he can't perform against the awful Bengal defense, it is likely you'll see Kellen Clemens before the game is finished. Pennington should be highly motivated, making him a plausible option, and the Coles/Cotchery tandem should also put up some nice numbers. One thing that the Bengals do well is sling the ball. Palmer, 85 and T. J. Championship are must-starts every single week. Even if Rudi Johnson is a surprise active, he'll likely remain uninvolved, just like in Week 6. Kenny Watson is a decent play in his place.

Bears @ Eagles

Bear Offense - Receiving: 230.2 (18), Rushing: 82.7 (27)
Eagle Defense - Receiving: 224.8 (13), Rushing: 91.2 (9)

Eagle Offense - Receiving: 244.2 (10), Rushing: 131 (10)
Bear Defense - Receiving: 245.2 (23), Rushing: 134.2 (26)

START: Cedric Benson, Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook, Kevin Curtis, Reggie Brown
CONSIDER: Brian Griese, Bernard Berrian, Bear Defense, Eagle Defense
BENCH: Muhsin Muhammad, Desmond Clark, Greg Olsen

Benson makes a nice start given how Thomas Jones sliced through the Eagle run defense in Week 6, despite the Eagles having a good defense. The Bear Defense, on the other hand, just isn't anywhere near as good as advertised. If you start them, just hope that Devin Hester breaks a return. McNabb rediscovered Reggie Brown in Week 6, and it will be interesting to see if he can overtake Curtis for WR1 status on the team. McNabb being able to successfully utilize both of them is key to his success. Brian Westbrook should put up solid numbers, as usual, both rushing and receiving.

Rams @ Seahawks

Ram Offense - Receiving: 210.7 (23), Rushing: 87.5 (25)
Seahawk Defense - Receiving: 238.5 (22), Rushing: 116.5 (18)

Seahawk Offense - Receiving: 252.7 (9), Rushing: 91.3 (22)
Ram Defense - Receiving: 214.8 (8), Rushing: 134.5 (27)

START: Torry Holt, Matt Hasselbeck, Shaun Alexander, Bobby Engram, Seahawk Defense
CONSIDER: Marc Bulger, Brian Leonard, Isaac Bruce
BENCH: Steven Jackson (out), Drew Bennett (check), Travis Taylor, Randy McMichael, Nate Burleson, D.J. Hackett (check), Courtney Taylor

The return of Bulger and the likely return of Bruce isn't going to magically transform the Ram Offense back into "The Greatest Show On Turf". Luckily for the owners of Holt and Bruce, their values will increase with Bulger's return, assuming Bulger's ribs are in better shape than when we last saw him. If Shaun Alexander has anything at all left in his tank, he will show it this week against a poor Ram rush D. Despite the Rams having a solid pass defense, look for the Seahawks to sling it, like they love to do. Brian Leonard is worth some thought this week. He was bad last week, but who isn't against the Ravens?

Vikings @ Cowboys
Viking Offense - Receiving: 183.6 (28), Rushing: 170.2 (1)
Cowboy Defense - Receiving: 251.3 (26), Rushing: 79.7 (6)

Cowboy Offense - Receiving: 284.5 (5), Rushing: 130.8 (11)
Viking Defense - Receiving: 304.6 (32), Rushing: 66.2 (2)

START: Adrian Peterson, Tony Romo, Terrell Owens, Patrick Crayton, Jason Witten, Cowboy Defense
CONSIDER: Marion Barber III
BENCH: Tarvaris Jackson, Viking Defense, Julius Jones

You don't see any Viking WR's listed up there, because you shouldn't own any of them. The Vikings are rock solid against the run, so if you have more attractive options than MB3, you should go with them. MB3 has a knack for finding the end zone, though, making him tough to bench. The Vikings can't slow down the pass, which is great news for owners of Romo, TO and Crayton. After seeing him shred the Bears in Week 6, is there any doubt that Purple Jesus should be in your lineup every single week?

Sunday Night Football

Steelers @ Broncos

Steeler Offense - Receiving: 202.6 (26), Rushing: 167 (2)
Bronco Defense - Receiving: 157.4 (1), Rushing: 187.6 (32)

Bronco Offense - Receiving: 231.6 (17), Rushing: 138.8 (8)
Steeler Defense - Receiving: 185.6 (3), Rushing: 72.6 (4)

START: Willie Parker, Heath Miller, Steeler Defense
CONSIDER: Travis Henry, Brandon Marshall
BENCH: Ben Roethlisberger,
Najeh Davenport, Hines Ward (check), Santonio Holmes (check), Jay Cutler, Selvin Young, Javon Walker (out), Brandon Stokley, Tony Scheffler, Bronco Defense

Look for a whole lot of Willie Parker this game. A WHOLE lot. The Broncos are great against the pass, but absolutely terrible against the run. Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes should both return this week, but they face a tough test. The value of the Bronco offensive players, especially Jay Cutler drops given that Javon Walker will be out from 6 weeks up to possibly the rest of the season. Still, defenses can't ignore Brandon Marshall. That should also remove a little bit of the pressure from Travis Henry. Word is that the Broncos may try lining up Selvin Young as a WR at times, but Brandon Stokley is now a starting WR. Look for the Broncos to struggle to put up points in this game.

Monday Night Football

Colts @ Jaguars

Colt Offense - Receiving: 263.8 (7), Rushing: 142 (5)
Jaguar Defense - Receiving: 224 (11), Rushing: 96.4 (10)

Jaguar Offense - Receiving: 213.8 (22), Rushing: 154.8 (4)
Colt Defense - Receiving: 181.6 (2), Rushing: 105.4 (13)

START: Peyton Manning, Joseph Addai, Marvin Harrison (check), Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Maurice Jones-Drew
CONSIDER: Fred Taylor
BENCH: Colt Defense, David Garrard, Dennis Northcutt, Reggie Williams, Marcedes Lewis, Jaguar Defense

Marvin Harrison isn't a lock to play, but it's looking like he'll be active. Still, if you have similar, safer option, perhaps you should go with them, given that this game is on Monday night. The tough Jags D will get all they can handle in this one, but don't completely count them out. Still, play it safe and bench both defenses. The Colts still struggle with poor tackling on the run, so keep MJD active. David Garrard doesn't turn the ball over, but this is a very unfavorable match up for him.

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